Posted by TL;DR version: Calculate a near-minimum bet and see if the ROI comes back at over 194.12%—typically substantially more. If so, you can earn 194.12% return plus a flat bonus on any bet, ranging from the $100 minimum to a maximum dependent on both sex and pounds pledged—$8.24 times pounds pledged for men, $15.45 times pounds pledged for women. A table expressing these values in a per-pound, per-month format for both sexes is provided downpost.
The flat bonus for men increases or decreases by $3.20 with each pound added to or subtracted from the pledge; $6.00 for women. Thus, it may be a useful trade-off to subtract weight while keeping investment the same, and ensuring that you don’t breach the aforementioned bet maximums or fall back into the regular model. Conversely, you should increase weight pledged only if you can increase your budget to bet at the increased maximums.
(To be updated frequently with plots and graphs)
If you do a near-minimum bet—
- 6 months: $20/month
- 7-10 months: $15/month
- 11-15 months: $10/month
- 16-18 months: $7/month
—-and you get a return on investment above 194.12%, congratulations: you are in the “supersize” formula of the calculator, which offers triple or better returns across the viable range of investments.
You’ll typically see this formula if you have a body mass index (BMI) of 35 or above and you pledge to lose dozens of pounds of weight. The “thicker” you are, the easier it is to get this model to activate, compared to the less-generous regular model.
This is my favorite formula to talk about because it is the basis for the really sexy payouts that Healthy Wage advertises. And its components are simpler to manipulate than the regular formula.
If you want to make a lot of money on your HealthyWager, I will tell you how to quickly find the amount of money you need to invest to get it.
But if you are betting more moderate amounts, I can show you how to ease your pledge with relatively little net gain sacrificed.
Constant slope component of net gain—nearly tripling your money
The regular model features an ROI that is a complex function of biometric inputs, pounds pledged and time pledged; but it is constant across all investment levels up to point where the net gain plateau is reached.
When net gain is plotted as a function of total investment, the regular gain formula plot passes through the zero investment / zero net gain origin on the plot. Because the formula passes through the origin, the ROI is always equal to the slope of the net gain plot in the regular model.
In contrast, the triple-bonus formula net gain plot features a 194.12% upward slope, in the region of total investment that you need to stay in. The slope itself is independent of any biometric input, or of pounds pledged or months pledged—except that the collective severity of these inputs has delivered you out of the regular formula and into the triple-bonus formula.
Vertical shift component of net gain—a bonus for aggressive weight pledged
Although the slope is a constant 194.12%, it is shifted vertically upward in the formula, so that at zero investment the net gain is a positive value. The amount of this shift is proportional to the number of pounds pledged in excess of 10% of your starting weight. For men, it is $3.20 times this number of pounds, and for women it is $6.00 times this number of pounds.
For instance, a 300 pound person pledging to lose 100 pounds will almost certainly be working with the supersize formula. As 10% of 300 pounds is 30, there are 70 excess pounds that contribute to the vertical shift in net gain. If the person is a man, his vertical shift of the sloped net gain line will be $3.20 times 70 or $224. If the person is a woman, this shift is $6.00 times 70 or $420.
The net gain at any investment point along the upward-sloping portion of the triple-bonus formula is therefore the sum of two figures: the total investment amount multiplied by 194.12%, and the vertical shift described in the above two paragraphs. The prize—the money returned to you when you win—is 294.12% of the total investment plus the bonus. (The 294.12% is very close to 300%, which would constitute a pure triple of your money.)
The flat bonus causes the ROI figure reported by Healthy Wage to be its largest at the minimum allowed wager, and to decrease as the bet is increased.
Examples at minimum bet level
We can now easily calculate net gain, prize, and ROI in the triple-bonus formula with just a few bet parameters.
Take for example the 300-pound man losing 100 pounds. Assume he wagers $100 across the entire duration of his bet—$10 per month for 10 months, to keep things simple.
The slope-dependent component of his net gain will be $100 times 1.9412 or $194.12. The bonus is $224, calculated above. These add up to $428.12. The return on the $100 investment is 428% and the prize is $528.12.
For a 300-pound woman losing 100 pounds, the slope-dependent component is the same $194.12, but the bonus is $420; and these add up to $614.12. The ROI is 614% and the prize is $714.12.
Negative slope and net gain plateau areas (sucker bets)
As in the regular model, the triple-bonus formula features a net gain plateau. It is almost always the same $16 per pound pledged for men and $30 per pound pledged for women than is featured in the regular model. (The exceptions involve moderate BMI women who are losing a substantial portion of their own weight. In the exceptions, a lower net gain ceiling is imposed—possibly as low as $800. You have to watch out for that because you won’t be able to increase your bet anymore without making it a sucker bet.)
But instead of net gain flattening out when the plateau is reached, it continues upward to a peak point, and then actually starts decreasing with more dollars bet. The slope of the falling segment of the net gain plot is -194.12%. When the net gain falls to the plateau value it finally flatlines, and stays constant until the $10,000 maximum prize limit forces it downward again.
Obviously, you should never make a wager high enough to get into the negative-sloped and zero-sloped areas of the net gain plot. These are sucker bets and you can always get the same or better net gain by betting less.
Where you want to bet is on the positive slope—and where you want to bet to get the most amount of new dollars from Healthy Wage is just to the left of the “summit”: where the 194.12% rising line forms a peak with the -194.12% falling line.
Maximum investment point for maximum gain—finding the “summit”
It is easy to calculate how much money bet if you want to max out on net gain in the triple-bonus model In most cases:
- If you are a man, bet $8.24 times the number of pounds pledged In your bet
- If you are a woman, bet $15.45 times the number of pounds pledged in your bet
These figures are independent of how many months you are pledging to lose the weight in.
(Note the exception involving low-BMI people. If you find that the plateau stops rising with additional pledged pounds, then take the constrained plateau value and divide it by 1.9412 to determine how much your bet should be to get near the net gain summit.
Because Healthy Wage requires you to define your total investment in round dollars per month, it is useful to develop a table with the monthly payment values associated with maximum net gain.
There is one for men and one for women. Values are expressed in dollars per pound pledged. Here they are:
Monthly payment schedule for maximum net gain: Men
- 6 months: $1.373/pound
- 7 months: $1.177/pound
- 8 months: $1.030/pound
- 9 months: $0.915/pound
- 10 months: $0.824/pound
- 11 months: $0.749/pound
- 12 months: $0.686/pound
- 13 months: $0.634/pound
- 14 months: $0.588/pound
- 15 months: $0.549/pound
- 16 months: $0.515/pound
- 17 months: $0.485/pound
- 18 months: $0.457/pound
Monthly payment schedule for maximum net gain: Women
- 6 months: $2.575/pound
- 7 months: $2.207/pound
- 8 months: $1.931/pound
- 9 months: $1.717/pound
- 10 months: $1.545/pound
- 11 months: $1.404/pound
- 12 months: $1.287/pound
- 13 months: $1.188/pound
- 14 months: $1.103/pound
- 15 months: $1.030/pound
- 16 months: $0.965/pound
- 17 months: $0.909/pound
- 18 months: $0.858/pound
For all of these, multiply the dollar figure indicated by the number of pounds pledged and round down to the next lower dollar.
(If the low-BMI plateau constraint is in effect, ignore the table and divide the constrained plateau value by 1.9412 and again by the number of months.)
The monthly payment you calculate will put you on the upward slope as close to the “summit” of the net gain plot as possible, which represents the ideal maximum investment point.
Generally you should not bet more per month than this figure. However, you may consider rounding up on occasion. Although you will technically be on the -194.12% downslope, on the other side of the summit, you are closer in absolute terms to the ideal peak net investment point (the “summit” on the plot) than if you stayed on the upward-sloping side of the summit. That last dollar per month will have a lower marginal ROI than the ones preceding it, but ultimately it makes little difference and choosing between the two sides of the summit is mostly a matter of preference.
Let’s return to the examples of the 300-pound people pledging to lose 100 pounds. Let’s say they plan to do it in 12 months. That’s 0.78% lost week-to-week for 52 weeks, which is a moderate weight loss pace.
If the man pledging to do this wishes to obtain maximum gain, he should make his monthly bet $0.686 times 100 pounds or $68.60/month, which should be rounded down to $68/month.
The total investment over the 12 months will be $816. This is the highest total investment the man can make on a 12-month 100 pound bet and still remain on the upward slope of the net gain plot.
The man can expect the calculator to provide a net gain figure equal to the sum of the slope component ($816 * 1.9412 = $1,584) and the bet-independent bonus ($224), or $1,808. The ROI reported out is 221.57%, and the prize is $2,624.
For the woman making the same bet, the monthly payment should be $1.287/pound or $128.70, rounded down to $128. The total investment over 12 months is $1,536.
The calculator will generate a net gain consisting of slope component of $1,536 * 1.9412 or $2981.68, and net-independent bonus of $420, for a total of $3,401.68. The ROI is 221.46%, and the prize is $4.937.68.
Limited budgets and making your bet easier for not much less money
If you are in the triple-bonus model, you are probably making a fairly aggressive bet. If you also have a monthly budget, you may want to consider decreasing the number of pounds pledged to give you some more breathing room.
The cost of doing so is a decrease in the bonus component of net gain. A man lowering his weight pledge by 1 pound loses only $3.20 in net gain, and a woman who does so loses only $6.00.
You can do this by trial and error in the calculator. If you try to do this, you need to watch to ensure that two additional adverse effects do not present themselves and cost you substantially more net gain than the mild reduction in vertical shift.
These effects are:
- Getting on the wrong side of the “summit” as it moves closer to your selected investment point, rendering your bet a sucker one at the reduced weight pledge
- Falling out of the triple-bonus model and back into the regular model, reducing ROI greatly
To avoid effect 1 from occurring, check that your monthly payment does not exceed the value calculated in the tables up-post, as that value decreases with reduction in pounds pledged.
To avoid effect 2 from occurring, check that the ROI being reported out by the calculator stays above 194.12%—if it suddenly drops to below that value from the 200s, you know you’ve reduced too much.
Consider again the 300 pound man losing 100 pounds in 12 months. Up-post we found that $68/month yields maximum net gain of $1,808. Consider now that he has chosen a $600 budget, or $50/month, and he would like the easiest bet possible that keeps within the triple-bonus formula. So he tries to reduce the number of pounds pledged in the calculator.
A 100 pound bet at $50/month for 12 months, or $600, pays $1,164.72 (slope component) + $224 (vertical shift) = $1,388.72 net gain, and $1,988.72 prize.
The total investment across 12 months is $600. With this data you can calculate the number of pounds that will cause the summit of the net gain plot to be immediately to the right of $600 on the horizontal axis.
An investment of $8.24 per pound for men ($15.45 for women) will yield the summit net gain. If we set that equal to $600, we can solve for the number of pounds required to get the summit net gain at $50/month.
That value is $600/$8.24 or 72.82 pounds. This needs to be rounded up to be conservative.
If the pledge is reduced to 73 pounds, the slope component of the net gain will still be $1,164.72. But the bonus will be $3.20 times the difference between 73 pounds and 10% of the 300-pound starting weight. So it’s $3.20 * (73 – 300*0.1) = $3.20 times 43 pounds, or $137.60.
The net gain for a 73-pound bet at $600 is $1,164.72 + $137.60 = $1,302.32. The prize is $1,902.12.
With effect 1 averted—not moving the summit to the left of the bet and turning it into a sucker bet—we need to check that the pledge got so easy that the calculator shifted the man back to the regular formula. To do this, simply test it in the calculator.
It works. The triple-bonusu formula is still in effect.
It is much easier to lose 73 pounds than 100, especially if you are inexperienced with successful weight loss and likely to struggle with setbacks. But the 100-pound bet pays only $86 more than the 73 pound bet does. You get 93.8% of the 100-pound net gain for losing only 73% of that 100 pounds. And I believe it is safe to say that the later pounds come off much harder than the earlier ones do. The week-to-week rate of weight loss required to drop from 300 to 227 in 52 weeks is 0.53%—much more relaxed than the 0.78% pace required to go from 300 to 200 in the same time.
Alternatively, the man can try to maintain a 0.78% week-to-week pace and get to 227 earlier. He could then divide his $600 investment over fewer months and get the same net gain—but only earlier.
Note that reducing to 72 pounds from 73 still maintains the supersize formula—but now the net gain summit has moved to the left of the bet, and so the net gain deteriorates substantially because of this.
Let’s do this again for a $25/month or $300 budget over 12 months.
The 100 pound bet earns $806.35 and the 73 bet $719.95. But we can reduce the pledge even more and stay in the supersize formula.
The $8.24/pound investment metric puts you next to the summit.
$300/8.24 = 36.41
We round up to 37 pounds and do a $25/month 12-month bet in the calculator.
The gain reported back is $392.07 and the ROI is 130.87%. We have dropped into the regular formula. So we cannot drop the pledge back to 37 pounds in order to keep the supersize formula in effect.
A 50 pound pledge has a $496.73 gain and 162.24% ROI.
A 55 pound pledge has $530.16 gain, 176.72% ROI.
A 60 pound pledge has $578.98 gain, 192.99% ROI.
And….
A 61 pound pledge has $681.55 gain, 227.18% ROI.
It turns out that 61 pounds is the lowest weight loss pledge required to stay in the supersize model. The $681.55 is 95% of the gain for losing 73 pounds and 85% of the gain for losing 100 pounds.
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