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Healthy Wage Calculator Example #1: Male / 270 / 6’1″ / 42″ Waist (Part 2)

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(Part 1 is here, where I illustrated the 6 month / 48 lb and 7 month / 56 pound cases.)

I will now calculate 8 months / 64 pounds and 9 months / 74 pounds. These are maintaining the 2 pounds per week weight loss approximately.

8 month bets at 64 pounds

8 months and 64 pounds pays an ROI of 136.55%—a little better than 4:3 odds—for bet amounts up to $94/month or $752 over the 8 months. The maximum net gain available is $16/pound or $1,024. The prize at this point is $1,776.

Some example 8 month bets:

  • $25/month or $200 total: Gain $273.10, Prize $473.10
  • $50/month or $400 total: Gain $546.20, Prize $946.20
  • $75/month or $600 total: Gain $819.30, Prize $1,413.30
  • $94/month or $752 total: Gain $1,024.00, Prize $1,776.00 (maximum net gain)
  • ***$100/month, or $800 total: Gain $1,024.00 Prize $1,824.00 (SUCKER BET. DO NOT MAKE. PAYING $6/MONTH WITH NO RETURN ON IT.) ***

9 month bets at 74 pounds

9 months and 74 pounds pays an ROI of 179.72%—about 9:5 odds—for bet amounts up to $74/month or $666 over the 8 months. The maximum net gain available is $16/pound or $1,184. The prize at this point is $1,850.

Some example 9 month bets:

  • $25/month or $225 total: Gain $404.36, Prize $629.36
  • $50/month or $450 total: Gain $808.73, Prize $1,258.73
  • $74/month or $666 total: Gain $1,184.00, Prize $1,850.00 (maximum net gain)
  • ***$75/month or $675 total: Gain $1,184.00, Prize $1,859.00 (THAT EXTRA $9 IS DOING DIDDLY SHIT FOR YOU)***
  • ***$100/month or $900 total: Gain $1,184.00, Prize $2,084.00 (Well, at least you can show everyone your $2k check from Healthy Wage—if you win. But why not put that extra $25/month into mini challenges and actually have it do some earning instead of gifting Healthy Wage with cash flow?)***

10 months and 82 pounds (the shift to the summit formula)

Things change at 10 months, however. Note that the ROI is now getting close to 194.12%. This is the value where the transition to the supersize formula, with its characteristic summit feature on the net gain plot, begins.

Adding another 8 pounds to the 74 at 9 months gives us 82 pounds to lose in 10 months, if I maintain an approximate 2 pound per week weight loss.

If I enter a small bet if $15/month for 10 months to lose 82 pounds, the calculator will give me a $467.18 gain and a 311.45% ROI, with a prize of $617.18. This more than quadrupling indicates that the summit model is in effect at this pledge level.

The $467.18 gain comprises a slope component of the $150 being multiplied by 194.12% or $291.18; and the vertical shift component of $3.20 times the difference between the weight pledge and 10% of my starting weight, or $3.20 * (82 – 27) = $176.

If I want to max out my net gain, I need to identify the bet amount that gets me just to the left of the “summit” on the net gain plot. To do that, I need to find the net gain plateau and divide that by 1.9412 to get the total bet amount over 10 months. I then divide that by 10 to get the monthly bet amount.

The net gain plateau for men is $16 times the weight pledge, or $1,312.

Dividing that by 1.9412, I get a bet amount of $675.82. Dividing by 10 months and rounding down yields $67/month.

At $67/month, the calculator yields $1,476.59 gain, 220.39% ROI, and a prize of $2,146.59.

Here are some example 10 month, 82 pound bets.

  • $25/month, $250 total: Gain $661.30, Prize $911.30 (ROI 264.52%)
  • $35/month, $350 total: Gain $855.42, Prize $1,205.42 (ROI 244.44%)
  • $45/month, $450 total: Gain $1,049.54, Prize $1,499.54 (ROI 233.23%)
  • $50/month, $500 total: Gain $1,146.60, Prize $1,646.60 (ROI 229.32%)
  • $60/month, $600 total: Gain $1,340.72, Prize $1,940.72 (ROI 223.45%)
  • $67/month, $670 total: Gain $1476.59, Prize $2,146.59 (ROI 220.39%) (This is just to the left of the summit and represents the maximum net gain at 82 pounds)
  • $68/month, $680 total: Gain $1,479.98, Prize $2,159.98 (ROI 217.64%) (Now we are on the right side of the summit, in the region of falling net gain slope—but just barely. For an additional $10 investment we picked up $3.39 in net gain. So that last $10 is earning a 33.9% ROI. It is a matter of preference whether you choose $67/month or $68/month—I’d prefer $67/month, but it’s not really a big deal)
  • ***$69/month, $690 total: Gain $1,460.57, Prize $2,150.57 (ROI 211.67%) (OK, this one is a big deal and it is bad. This last $10 being paid in is not only not earning anything, it is actually REDUCING your absolute gain and prize values. Unlike in the regular model, you don’t even get the $10 pushed back to you if you win—they actually take it plus a little bit more. The marginal return on the $10 is negative: you pay $10, you lose $19.41, for a marginal ROI of -194.12%. This bet is definitely I’ll-advised.)***
  • ***$77/month, $770 total: Gain $1,312.00 Prize $2,082.00 (ROI 170.39%) (This bet is on the men’s net gain plateau of $16 per pound times 82 pounds. The net gain slope has improved from being negative to being zero. If you bet more money than this you are still pissing it away, but at least Healthy Wage is now pushing all those marginal dollars back to you if you win. Of course, you have forfeited all of that vertical shift you would have enjoyed had you bet on the summit or to the left of it.)***
  • ***$100/month, $1,000 total: Gain $1,312.00 Prize $2,312.00 (ROI 131.20%) (Slammed into the net gain ceiling hard. At least I could do the arithmetic in my head on this one)***

11 month bets (90 pounds, the maximum I would care to do)

So 82 pounds gets me down to 188, which is close to a permanent goal weight. I could try for 90 pounds and 11 months, and get to 180. How much can I make then?

The differences between the 82-pound net gain plot and the 90-pound one with both using the summit formula are two:

  1. You have an increase in vertical shift in when going from 82 to 90 pounds, to the tune of $3.20*8 = $25.60. Not very much.
  2. The summit shifts rightward, as the net gain plateau has increased with the additional 8 pounds added. The increase (for men) is $16*8 or $128.

So if I’m going for maximum net gain, I can get another $153.60 out of Healthy Wage by adding 8 pounds to the pledge.

Here are the example 11 month, 90 pound bets.

  • $25/month, $275 total: Gain $735.43, Prize $1,010.43 (ROI 267.42%)
  • $35/month, $385 total: Gain $948.96, Prize $1,333.96 (ROI 246.48%)
  • $45/month, $495 total: Gain $1,162.49, Prize $1,657.49 (ROI 234.84%)
  • $50/month, $550 total: Gain $1,269.26, Prize $1,819.26 (ROI 230.77%)
  • $60/month, $660 total: Gain $1,482.79, Prize $2,142.79 (ROI 224.67%)
  • $67/month, $737 total: Gain $1,632.26, Prize $2,369.26 (ROI 221.47%) (This is just to the left of the summit and represents the maximum net gain at 90 pounds)
  • ***$68/month, $748 total: Gain $1,629.58, Prize $2,377.58 (ROI 217.85%) (Right side of summit, and also the wrong side—we are now losing gain as we add dollars to the net. This continues until we hit $80/month. Not good)***
  • ***$75/month, $825 total: Gain $1,480.11, Prize $2,305.11 (ROI 179.41%) (Sliding further down the bad side of the net gain slope)***
  • ***$80/month, $880 total: Gain $1,440.00, Prize $2,320.00 (ROI 163.63%) (The net gain plateau of $16/pound times 90 pounds is here. Gain is flatlined at $1,440 for all bets larger than this until prize hits the $10,000 maximum. 💩)***

90 pounds is a lot of weight to lose—and it’s betting on hitting a home run at weight loss, and that’s scary for someone who has never done that before and may have a decades-long history of failure at it (like me).

Looking ahead…

But now that we are in the summit model, where the better-than-tripling of big money amounts is available, it behooves us to look into trading away a little net gain in favor of making the bet substantially easier.

This will be the subject of Part 3 of this example.

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