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Healthy Wage Calculator Example #2: Female 226 lb / 5’7″

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Total investment options: 30 lb and 35 lb in 6 months. Also 45 lb in 9 months–look at the increase in payout!
Monthly payment options: 30 lb and 35 lb in 6 months. Also 45 lb in 9 months!

This was my first case of helping someone who spotted the blog. Thank you for letting me publish your case!

She was looking to launch a second HealthyWager after completing the first one. She was anticipating weighing 225 or 226 pounds at weigh-out.

Her waist is 47″, but very recently waist circumference has been removed as an input to the calculator, so it doesn’t matter here.

She was looking to lose 30-35 pounds in 6-9 months, with a monthly budget of $50 to $75, although she was open to bumping that up if the return could be improved.

30 pound bets

I started with 6 month bets for 30 pounds.

It turned out that a 6 month bet for 30 pounds offers a 137.35% return on investment–a little better than 4:3 odds–starting at the minimum bet of $17 per month ($102 total) and going up to $109 per month ($654 total).

Returns on this are:

  • $50/month, $300 total: Gain $412.05 / Prize $712.05
  • $75/month, $450 total: Gain $618.08 / Prize $1,068.08
  • $100/month, $600 total: Gain $824.10 / Prize $1,424.10
  • $109/month, $654 total: Gain $898.27 / Prize $1,552.27
  • $110/month, $660 total: Gain $900, Prize, $1,550

The maximum net gain available is $900. This is $30 times the 30 pounds in the pledge. (Females get $30/pound; males $16/pound.) Because this is a regular formula bet and not a triple-bonus formula bet, there is no shift bonus available.

The $654 total investment that yields just about $900 in net gain is found by dividing $900 by the 137.35% ROI figure. The precise figure is $655.26. This is further divided over 6 months to get $109.21. The player has a practical choice of doing $109/month and getting just under $900 net; or doing $110/month and getting the full $900, and earning only $1.83 on that extra $6 put in. But betting $111/month or more is a sucker bet.

Spreading the 30 pounds over 7, 8, or 9 months increases the ROI slightly. For 7 months, the ROI is 139.09%. For 8 months it is 140.84%, and for 9 months it is 142.63%. I didn’t propose bets for these to my correspondent, because they make the bet drag out longer while not providing much improvement in ROI. Also, the $900 cap on net gain is still in effect for these bets.

35 pound bets

For improved ROI I considered 35 pound bets. I started at 6 months again.

A 6 month bet for 35 pounds offers a 152.62% return on investment–a little better than 3:2 odds–starting at the minimum bet of $17 per month ($102 total) and going up to $114 per month ($684 total).

This time, the maximum net gain is $1,050. This can be achieved with a $115 per month, $690 total bet. (The ideal investment point, if you could specify bets in dollars and cents, is $1,050 / 152.62% = $687.98, or $114.66 per month.)

  • $50/month, $300 total: Gain $457.86 / Prize $787.86
  • $75/month, $450 total: Gain $686.79 / Prize $1,136.79
  • $100/month, $600 total: Gain $915.72 / Prize $1,515.72
  • $114/month, $684 total: Gain $1,043.92 / Prize $1,727.92
  • $115/month, $690 total: Gain $1,050, Prize, $1,740

45 pound bets (finding the triple-bonus formula for huge ROI spike)

The last thing I did, even though my correspondent didn’t specifically ask for it, was to see how much weight she would have to pledge to lose to trigger the triple-bonus formula. I set the time input on the calculator to 9 months and monthly payment to $15/month, and started increasing weight in small increments, starting from 35 pounds, to see when the ROI rose above 194.12%. I was looking for a massive spike in ROI beyond that point. I got it at 45 pounds.

Here are the ROIs for $15/month bets for 9 months:

  • 35 pounds: 158.61% ROI
  • 36 pounds: 162.03% ROI (small increase, gonna jump 4 pounds next step)
  • 40 pounds: 176.76% ROI
  • 44 pounds: 193.23% ROI (very close, 1 more pound may do it)
  • 45 pounds: 268.78% ROI (voila, we are in the summit model!)

The net gain at 45 pounds is 194.12% of the total bet amount, plus a flat bonus of $6 for every pound pledged in excess of 10% of starting weight. The bonus here is $6 * (45 – 0.1*226) = $6 * 22.4 = $134.40.

So at $15/month or $135 total bet, the net gain is going to be $135 times 194.12% plus the $134.40 bonus. That would be $396.46.

The prize at 45 pounds is 294.12% of the total bet amount, plus the flat bonus. In this case it’s $531.46.

That net gain relationship holds until net gain reaches a local maximum: the “summit” of the net gain versus total investment plot. The total investment level associated with maximum net gain in the summit formual is found by dividing the net gain plateau ($30 times pledged weight for women) by 194.12%.

For a 45 pound pledge the plateau is $1,350. Divide that by 1.9412 and you get $695.44. Spread over 9 months, that’s $77.27 per month. And so a $77/month bet will yield the maximum net gain for this pledge.

Some examples:

  • $40/month, $360 total: Gain $833.23 / Prize $1,293.23 / ROI 231.45%
  • $50/month, $450 total: Gain $1,007.94 / Prize $1,457.94 / ROI 223.99%
  • $60/month, $540 total: Gain $1,182.65 / Prize $1,782.65 / ROI 219.01%
  • $70/month, $630 total: Gain $1,357.36 / Prize $1,987.36 / ROI 215.45%
  • $75/month, $675 total: Gain $1,444.71 / Prize $2,119.71 / ROI 214.03%
  • $77/month, $693 total: Gain $1,479.65 / Prize $2,172.65 / ROI 213.51% (maximum net gain–any bet larger than $77/month causes gain to drop)

The 45 pound pledge can be spread over as few as 6 months, or as long as 18 months, and the net gain figures will be the same with respect to total investment. The triple-bonus formula payouts do not depend on the time span, although the monthly installment values will increase for shorter bets and decrease for longer bets if the total bet value is held constant.

Coda

I don’t know what my correspondent will do. She is pretty sure she can lose the 35 pounds, but 45 pounds might be stretching things for her. Starting from 226, losing 30 pounds would get her to 196, and 35 would get her to 191. And 45 pounds would get her to 181. For a 5’7″ woman, that is generally not an underweight condition, so 181 would seem a safe target. But ultimately you have to know what you and your own body can accomplish, and set your own goals and go for them. It’s nice to earn over 2:1 on your money and pick up nearly $1,500; but going for over $1,000 at 3:2 odds is quite nice as well.

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