Posted by An epic competition is brewing.
No, it’s not this one. Although $10,000 is definitely epic—and you can learn more about how that one works here.
No, what we got here is the weight-loss betting equivalent of a Coke-vs-Pepsi, Chevy-vs-Ford, McDonalds-vs-Burger King, Michigan-vs-Ohio State… you get the idea. (My recommendation on those is take Michigan and Ford and black coffee from the fast-food joints, and discard the rest.
In one corner, we have a trusted veteran—a Healthy Wage Individual Jackpot Challenge. This iteration is called Fall Fitness, and it costs $30 to join. The weigh-in period begins Sunday, October 6, and runs for two weeks through Sunday, October 20. Weigh-outs are from Sunday, December 15 through Sunday, December 29.
And in the other, we have an upstart—a DietBet “6% in 3 Months” game. It is a “beta” test game and only members can play it (membership is $5/month and offers prize raffles for weekly weight tracking, and possible earlier weigh-outs than normal). The fee is $50. Weigh-ins begin on Saturday, October 5. The weigh-out period is 48 hours, Monday-Tuesday, December 30-31.
I’m in both of them. I will weigh in for both this weekend—probably Sunday midday or Sunday evening.
I am interested in the following things on both of these bets and comparing them:
Social interaction
In Fall Fitness, as in other Healthy Wage Games, I will participate very little in the in-app chat. I just don’t do that. Lots of people use the chat, but I don’t find much value in it. Usually I know nobody in there.
For the DietBet beta game, I will participate slightly more in the chat feed—especially if there’s prizes offered. The host is a DietBet person, and usually I do games hosted by independent people, so I don’t know what to expect from this.
Different weigh-out windows
This is the big one for me. I note the following differences between the two games:
Fall Fitness has a two-week weigh-out window. This starts December 15—17 days after American Thanksgiving and 10 days before Christmas—and ends December 29, four days after the two-day Christmas Eve / Christmas Day combination and right in the middle of holiday party season.
The fortnight-long window makes it possible for players to weigh out many days before having to contend with this:
In contrast, there is a 48-hour weigh-out window on the Beta game: Monday-Tuesday, December 30-31. This means most players must endure the scene depicted above. The saving grace is that there are several days to drop the water weight before submitting the weigh in, and most people will get that squared away before engaging in New Year’s Eve debauchery.
Odds and expected return
I have not been in a Healthy Wage jackpot challenge during the holidays yet, so I will get an idea of how well these pay out by playing in Fall Fitness. But I suspect that the $30 will turn into better than the $50 average I seem to be getting over the course of the year.
I do have data from Kickstarters hosted by some of the big hosts, and the returns tend to be higher in December than in other times of the year. Here are ROIs for some $10 and $30 games—note the spikes for the ones that start at the beginning of December
I think Fall Fitness will return 75% ($52.50 on a $30 bet). Meanwhile, I will predict a doubling of the fee on the DietBet beta ($100 on a $50 bet).
Membership has its privileges
I am on a 1-month DietBet membership that expires in a week or two. I bought it for my three September Kickstarters.
In addition to getting to do weekly progress weigh-ins and enter prize raffles every Thursday, I can do a progress weigh-in less than 48 hours before the beginning of another 48-hour game weigh-out period and have the progress weigh-in count for the game weigh-out.
This will apply to the three Kickstarters I am on now, that end Sunday, October 13, and weigh out Monday-Tuesday, October 14-15. If I do a progress weigh-in as early as Saturday morning, October 12; and my weight that morning is under the goal weight for the three Kickstarters, then on Monday I can re-use that progress weigh-in to weigh out for the Kickstarters. (I may have to do this through the website, however—it may not be supported in the app.)
This means that in December, I can pay $5 to be a member again, and I will be able to do a progress weigh-in as early as Saturday morning, December 28; this will count for the beta weigh-in if I make weight. This is a nice asset to have when going through the holidays.
My last weight-loss weigh-ins, God willjng
In December, I will finish the remainder of my Healthy Wage jackpot challenges, as well as my second Healthy Wager. Fall Fitness will be my last Healthy Wager game for the year—and hopefully forever, unless they introduce maintainer games. This is assuming I actually maintain and not gain. I feel strong but we will see.
Looking ahead—to the end of the year
In DietBet, early December will seen the completion of another beta game: a 4%, 8-week game. I may do some other Kickstarters but I’m not sure yet. The 6% game will be the last of 2019.
I am about 201 now. I plan to be 185 by the end of this year. I am 6’1”, so this is pretty lean for me. My family is probably going to tell me it is too lean, but this is what I weighed in college and that is what I want. It sounds like a nice number, anyway.
I’ll be down 115-120 pounds from where I was this time last year. Already I weigh less than at any other time in this century. I didn’t think it would be possible to get back to college weight or less without entering a coffin or urn permanently, but today it seems a possibility.
Maintainers are coming for DietBet. I hope Healthy Wage will have them, too.
Looking forward to the rest of the fall. And more blogging to come.
Weight Betting Odds 