Healthy Wager Calculator Example #3: Male 218.6 lb, 6’1”

Jackpot challenges to the rescue when the ROI is in the dirt

This post describes what can happen if you set an intermediate HealthyWager goal, meet it, and then try to do another HealthyWager to get to ultimate goal weight: the return offered on the second HealthyWager is way too low to make it worthwhile to do.

This can discourage a lot of people. On the Healthy Wage Facebook feed, commenters will ask about the calculator, somebody may answer about the calculator offering between 11% and 300+% ROI.

But when some people try the calculator out—particularly men who are about 25-40 pounds overweight—the calculator offers to pay 50% return or much less. In my case, the ROI slammed against the 11% floor and it took some effort to lift it off of there.

Here are the bets for 22 pounds in 6 months (the least amount of weight I can bet when starting at 218.6)

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $13.33, Prize $133.33, ROI 11.11%
• $100/month, $600 total: Gain $66.67, Prize $666.67, ROI 11.11%
• $528/month, $3,168.00 total: Gain $352.00, Prize $3,520.00, ROI 11.11%
• ***$529/month, $3,174.00 total: Gain $352.00, Prize $3,526.00, ROI 11.09% (the additional $6 earns nothing; this begins the sucker bet region of the plot)***

This is a regular formula plot. The 11.11% ROI (prize is 10 times the gain) is available at all bet levels from minimum ($17/month) up to $528/month. After that, a net gain ceiling of $16 times the pledged weight is imposed—or, $16 * 22 lb = $384. I cannot net over $384 for this bet—but in order to net this value I have to invest well over $3,000.

Technically, all of these are sucker bets, because there are other ways within Healthy Wage (and DietBet) to get a much better return for similar weight loss. But we’ll get to that in a minute.

Let’s try bumping the weight pledge a bit. 25 pounds in 6 months:

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $13.33, Prize $133.33, ROI 11.11%
• $100/month, $600 total: Gain $66.67, Prize $666.67, ROI 11.11%
• $600month, $3,600.00 total: Gain $400.00, Prize $4,000.00, ROI 11.11%
• ***$601/month, $3,606.00 total: Gain $400.00, Prize $4,606.00, ROI 11.09% (the additional $6 earns nothing; this begins the sucker bet region of the plot)***

Same ROI for the trouble of adding 3 pounds to the pledge. The only difference is I can dump another $71/month in on top of the $529/month from the 22 pound bet and pick up another $48 at the end.

So I’m slammed against an ROI floor of sorts. Usually when you raise the weight pledge, the ROI goes up; but right now the input-dependent ROI that the calculator would otherwise provide is lower than the 11% minimum that Healthy Wage will offer for any Healthy Wager. And so the floor overrides the input-dependent ROI.

If the weight pledge is sufficiently raised, the ROI should eventually rise. I have to do trial and error to determine where that is (I don’t know the regular formula ROI equation yet, only that it’s complex, but it doesn’t matter much in the practical sense because trial and error can tell you all you really need to know to set up a good bet).

If I try 30 pounds for 6 months, the ROI remains at 11.11%. Same thing with 35 pounds. And 36. And 37. And 38.

At 39 pounds 6 months:

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $14.66, Prize $134.67, ROI 12.22%

At 40 pounds 6 months:

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $16.61, Prize $136.61, ROI 13.84%

At 41 pounds 6 months:

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $18.62, Prize $138.62, ROI 15.52%

At 42 pounds 6 months:

• $20/month, $120 total: Gain $20.65, Prize $140.65, ROI 17.21%

Here are the payout plots. I couldn’t even show where the sucker bets start because you have to bet a huge amount to get to where the net gain is capped.

So the return is now improving, but I have to commit to dropping below 180 pounds to get off the ROI floor. That’s very lean for a 6’1” man. Even if I add time to the bet, I am not going to get much financial benefit in exchange for completing a very onerous wager.

Fortunately, I don’t have to take this ROI. I can get a much better one for merely losing 10% in 6 months. And there are multiple ways to do this. As I like to say (and piss off my mother and sister, clichéd as it is), there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Referral Boosts are King

You should always sign on for a HealthyWager using a referral link. They add money to your prize. And when you have an 11% ROI, you especially need to do this.

If I do a minimum stake bet of $17/month, $102 total, without a boost my gain will be $11.33 and my prize $114.33. But if I do this and use a $40 boost link that is ALWAYS available, my $11.33 gain goes up to $51.33, and my prize goes up from $113.33 to $153.33. The ROI for this bet rises from 11.11% to 50.33%.

50 percent isn’t so hot either, but remember that the source of the referral link gets a boost as well. In my case, my wife got a $100 boost—normally $40, but they had an Independence Day promotion going on. If Healthy Wage is temporarily enhancing boost money, it can be quite lucrative to sign up and lock in the boosts.

Betting more than minimum stake does not increase the boost, so it makes no financial sense to launch a HealthyWager above minimum stake. Instead, I should invest my money in other bets.

Option A: 12-week 6% Indiviudual challenges

Let’s figure it would be good for me to lose about 15% in 8 months—that would put me around 185 at the end of that time. Also let’s assume a $600 budget, or the $100 per month from the original HealthyWager.

If I do a $17/month HealthyWager as I have just described, I will have $83/month left to invest, or about $500.

At the beginning of the weight loss period, I could distribute this $500 amongst several individual jackpot challenges. For instance, I could choose two $100 challenges, two $30 challenges, and four $60 challenges. These would be spread out over a 4-week period if there are two offered per week.

During Month 4, these challenges would end, and during the latter part of Month 4 and the earlier part of Month 5, the winnings would accrue as HW Points—assuming I lost the 6% for each of those.

It is reasonable to expect the $100s to earn $31 each and grow to $131 each. The $30s would grow to $50 each, and the $60s to $85 each. Once the last challenge is paid out, I might have $702 in HW points—the $500 back plus $202 profit.

Let’s say as the points came in, i reinvested as many as possible into new challenges. For $702 I could do:

• three $100, or $300
• three $30, or $90
• five $60, or $300

That’s $690 re-wagered and $12 held onto. Eleven challenges would take about 5 1/2 weeks to sign up for—so that means the end of Month 4 through most of Month 5.

By the end of Month 8, if I have lost an additional 6% on each, I would have $393 from the $100 bets, $150 from the $30 bets, and $425 from the $60 bets. That adds up to $968. I would have grown $500 into $968 in about 8 months. If I can lose 0.5% week over week, I will win all of the jackpots involved and get all of that money.

So for a $600 investment, at the end of 8 months I have:

• $153 from the HealthyWager (including $40 referral boost)
• $968 from the jackpots
• $12 from the first tranche of jackpots that I didn’t invest in the second

A total of $1,133, or 89% return.

Here’s an example chronological breakdown, week to week (I bumped the actual investment up $2, and assumed a repeating schedule of twice-a-week challenges):

• Week 0: Balance $602
• Week 1
  • Start Healthy Wager for $17/month for 6 months, 10% loss, 11% return plus $40 boosts: -$102, balance $500
  • Start $30 challenge A: balance $470
  • Start $60 challenge B: balance $410
• Week 2
  • Start $60 challenge C: balance $350
  • Start $100 challenge D: balance $250
• Week 3
  • Start $30 challenge E: balance $220
  • Start $60 challenge F: balance $160
• Week 4
  • Start $60 challenge G: balance $100
  • Start $100 challenge H:balance $0
• Week 13: Weigh out on A and B
• Week 14: Weigh out on C and D
• Week 15
  • Weigh out on E and F
  • Paid on A HW50: balance HW50
  • Paid on B HW85: balance HW135
  • Start $30 challenge I: balance HW105
  • Start $60 challenge J: balance HW45
• Week 16
  • Weigh out on G and H
  • Paid out on C HW85: balance HW130
  • Paid out on D HW131: balance HW261
  • Start $60 challenge K: balance HW201
  • Start $100 challenge L: balance HW101
• Week 17
  • Paid out on E HW50: balance HW151
  • Paid out on F HW85: balance HW236
  • Start $30 challenge M: balance HW206
  • Start $60 challenge N: balance HW146
• Week 18
  • Paid out on G HW85: balance HW231
  • Paid out on H HW131: balance HW362
  • Start $60 challenge O: balance HW302
  • Start $100 challenge P: balance HW202
• Week 19
  • Start $30 challenge Q: balance HW172
  • Start $60 challenge R: balance HW112
• Week 20
  • Skip $60 challenge S
  • Start $100 challenge T: balance HW12
• Week 27
  • Weigh out on I and J
  • Weigh out on HealthyWager
• Week 28
  • Weigh out on K and L
  • Pay on HealthyWager HW153: balance HW165
• Week 29
  • Weigh out on M and N
  • Pay on I HW50: balance HW215
  • Pay on J HW85: balance HW300
• Week 30
  • Weigh out on O and P
  • Pay on K HW85: balance HW385
  • Pay on L HW131: balance HW516
• Week 31
  • Weigh out on Q and R
  • Pay on M HW50: balance HW566
  • Pay on N HW85: balance HW651
• Week 32
  • Weigh out on T
  • Pay on O HW85: balance HW736
  • Pay on P HW131: balance HW867
• Week 33
  • Pay on Q HW50: balance HW917
  • Pay on R HW85: balance HW1,002
• Week 34
  • Pay on T HW131: balance HW1,133
  • Request a check
• Week 35
  • Get check in mail for $1,126 (deduct $7 for check fee)

Option B: DietBet Transformers

Another option is to do three DietBet transformers for $175 each, or $525 total. Combined with the 6 month HealthyWager, that’s $627 invested in weight loss.

The transformers will pay about $325 each according to DietBet; I am going with that amount, which is about 85.7% return. So in about 7 months you’ll have $975 from the transformers and $153 from the HealthyWager, for a total of $1,128.

Transformers, of course, require weigh-ins every month in order to get paid on all the pots. And you have to lose gradually to win all the pots. But if you can do that, this is a good option.