HWSim – Sequential Wagers or One Long One?

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If you are looking to lose a lot of weight in 12 months or more and considering Healthy Wage to monetize it, you may have a dilemma as to whether you want to do a single long wager or split it into 2 sequential wagers.

So you can use this page to figure out which option pays out more, and how much more. The official Healthy Wage calculator does not allow you to do that.

So consider a 5’-5” woman weighing 250 pounds, who wants to drop 80 pounds in a year. Healthy Wage allows the option of creating a HealthyWager to do just that.

But it is also possible to do a 6 month bet for 40 pounds, and bank winnings on that; and then launch a second HealthyWager to get the next 40. Which is better?

This page will tell you which option makes more money in the end. But the two options are completely different, so that alone will not tell you which is the better option.

In the example above, the woman pledges $50 per month in both the first wager and in the second wager. She launches with a $40 referral boost in both wagers. The prize and gain for each wager is shown.

The first wager pays a much better return than the second one. As starting weight decreases, return on investment generally decreases. The first wager payout accords with the triple-bonus formula (net gain 194.12% of investment, plus a flat bonus of $6 for each pound pledged over 10% of starting weight, plus the referral bonus) while the second wager pays according to the less lucrative regular formula (net gain 173% of investment, plus referral bonus).

The option of doing all 80 pounds in a 12-month bet is also presented. The combined $600 is subjected to the triple-bonus formula—the net gain is 194.12% times $600, plus $6 for each pound pledged over 6% of starting weight.

Compared to two sequential bets, the money multiplier is greater—you get the 194.12% working on the entire $600—and the pledge-dependent bonus is higher. Although you forfeit the second referral boost, the one-year bet does make more profit in the end.

I designed this feature because Healthy Wage does not provide a straightforward way to perform this analysis in their calculator. You only get to enter one starting weight, so you cannot properly evaluate what a hypothetical second wager would earn.

Some limitations of this analysis:

• If you do the two-wager plan and you overperform on the first wager, the second wager will not pay out as well as you predicted it would at the beginning. The starting weight will be lower, which will suppress the return on investment.
• You cannot predict referral boost values in the future—there might be the standard $40 that is widely available, or something more lucrative may be out there.
• (To be determined after verification, check back later)