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One thing that the official Healthy Wage website calculator does not do well is help you figure out if you should design a long-term wager for a lot of pounds, or do two sequential wagers for 6 months each, and split the weight loss amongst them.
This is because you can enter your starting weight only once. Then you have to design bets using that starting point only. If you are looking to drop 100 pounds in a year, you can get a prize quote for that; you can also get one for 50 pounds in 6 months, but you cannot easily find out what they would pay on a second 6-month 50-pound wager to start immediately after the first one.
Before the HWSim tool came out, you’d have to create a fake account to get that second wager prize quote. But if you use the 1 vs 2 feature of HWSim, you can get those approximate quotes and also see what the profit difference is.
Usually, the 12-month bet is going to pay more than the two 6-month bets. The 12-month bet is most likely going to pay 200% or more in profit as its prize is calculated with what I have termed the triple-bonus formula—you get a profit of 194% of your bet, plus a flat bonus proportional to the number of pounds you are pledging to lose.
In contrast, the first of the two 6 month bets will likely pay according to the triple bonus formula. But depending on what your BMI will be at the halfway point. The second 6-month bet may pay according to the regular formula—an ROI between 11% and 194% with no flat bonus. So the total profit of the two sequential legs will likely be less than the profit for the 12-month bet.
Of course, there are really good reasons to do sequential wagers even if the overall profit is lower:
- You get to bank money at the halfway point.
- You can sign up with a referral code on the second wager and get an extra boost to your wager.
- If you like to refer people for extra cash, when you are on the second wager, you actually get both a prize boost in that wager, and an equal amount immediately in your HW Points. (Note: Customer service reps will tell you differently—they think you forfeit the HW Points benefit when you start a new wager—but in fact the double-crediting is what happens when you are a former winner and doing a second wager. It’s by design, as far as I’m concerned.
Example 1
Female. 5’3”, 250 lb
If she pledges to lose 100 lb in a year; and bets $129/mo or $1,548; and uses a $40 referral code, she can get $3,485.02 profit and $5,033.02 prize. But she has to wait until the end of the year and lose all 100 pounds to get it.
Conversely, she can do a 6 month pledge for 50 lb, again at $129/mo, and again taking a $40 referral boost. The total bet for this is $774. The profit for succeeding is $1,687.51 and the prize is $2,461.51.
If she makes that, she gets a substantial profit right away. If she hit the goal exactly, she can then launch a second wager for 50 lb in 6 months—again at $129/mo or $774, and again using a $40 referral boost. The profit this time is $1,717.51 and the prize $2,491.51.
The 12-month bet makes $80 more in profit than the two 6-month bets do. Both bets are paying according to the more powerful triple-bonus payout formula.
The 12-month bet enjoys a bonus that is greater than the sum of the two bonuses in the sequential bets, and that is largely responsible for the difference. But the second $40 referral boost mitigates some of this.
Note that the second bet prize is subject to change from what is being predicted at the beginning of her weight loss journey. If the woman loses more than 50 pounds during the first bet, she will still get a prize based on 50 pounds of weight loss. If she loses 55 pounds, a subsequent 45-pound bet will earn less. In fact, she will need to bet only $116/mo or $696 (to avoid an overbetting penalty in profit), and she will get $1,541.92 profit or $2,237.92 prize.
It’s a smaller second prize—but the trade off of weighing less, sooner, may be worth it.
Also, during the second wager, any friends and family referred will not only add money to the second wager prize, but will also add equal money immediately to her HW Points account. This could make up substantially for having a smaller payout.
Example 2
Male, 6’1”, 270 lb.
An 80 lb pledge for a year. Assume $60/mo
Full year: $600 bet. $40 referral boost. Profit $1,374.32, Prize $1,974.32
Two 6-month sequential bets, 40 lb each.
- First bet: $300. $40 referral boost. Profit $259.52, Prize $559.52
- Second bet: $300. $40 referral boost. Profit $119.05, Prize $419.05
The year-long bet pays $995.75 more in profit. It’s paying out according to the triple-bonus formula. The first 6 month bet pays less than even money (86.51%) and the second 6 month bet pays 39.68%. So it might be a better deal to do the long term bet if you are confident.
Weight Betting Odds 