My modest yo-yo idea

As far as I can tell, for the yo-yo reprieve promotion. Healthy Wage had what I’ll call a “double secret probation” list of ineligible players that they failed to share internally with marketing and customer service.

Anyone who was blatantly losing and gaining weight in an unhealthy matter to “game the system” would have had the whistle blown on them by the referees during the challenges. They probably would not have been paid out on their HealthyWagers.

But it appears there was a lower tier of “marginal” players that they gave the benefit of the doubt on, likely for business reasons. They got paid on their wagers. But in their judgment they were not “clean” enough to merit an invitation to start a yo-yo wager, should they be in the position to do so.

That subgroup is less than 1% of all the people who were offered and accepted the yo-yo wager invitation. It’s a very select group.

The criteria for making the “double secret probation” list is unknown, but I would suspect the following things can help get you on it—perhaps stacked up:

• Completing a HealthyWager with a “brisk” rate of weight loss. One correspondent who got booted out was doing 1.04% week-to-week for 6 months on their previous HealthyWager. My favorite expert on nutrition and fitness is Adam Ali at physiqonomics.com; he has recommended 0.5-1.0% per week as a safe way to lose fat while retaining muscle. So 1.04% is borderline high, but I wouldn’t go so far as to call it unhealthy.
• Multiple wagers with rapid changes in weight between the required weigh-ins. There’s a “2% rule” that guards against someone waterloading for a weigh-in on a new challenge and then dropping all that weight a few days later for a weigh-out on another challenge that is ending. But that triggers only if you have a 2%-per-week change, rounded up to the nearest pound—they artificially increase your weigh-out weight to be compliant. That’s an extreme threshold. But maybe there are lower limits over longer periods of time that, if you breach them, you risk making the DSP list.
• Participation and relative success in a $10,000 team challenge. To have a chance at winning the big money in that, you have to lose 1.5% week-to-week for 12 weeks. If you came even close to that, they may judge you as having a yo-yo problem if you had subsequently gained and are looking to do a yo-yo wager.

So I totally understand guarding against people winning a big bet by losing a lot of weight, then putting it all back on in short order so they can do it again. The HealthyWager calculator assumes that most people setting up big wagers have not lost that kind of weight before—and certainly not in the Healthy Wage world. So letting them back in and laying the same odds to them is financially risky—you know they are more likely to win, being veterans of the process.

But I assume there’s a good business case for allowing it, because they actually did it. I would assume the veterans would be more likely enroll in jackpot challenges with a HealthyWager on than otherwise, and those always make money because Healthy Wage skims 25% of the fees on all of them. The more players in each game, the more they make—and it doesn’t matter what they weigh or how successful they have been in the Healthy Wage world.

I think yo-yo wagering should be a standard feature. But you need to restrict it, and you need to openly state the restrictions so everyone understands them.

Here’s what I suggest:

• Upon completing a HealthyWager with prize of $200 or more, no yo-yo wagering of any kind is allowed for 3 months. During the lockout period, only standard HealthyWagers are allowed (starting weight for a new wager must be at or below the weigh-out weight on the previous HealthyWager).
• After the lockout period has expired, yo-yo wagering can be allowed—but the maximum starting weight should be equal to the weigh-out weight, plus 1% for every full month since the weigh-out (rounded to the nearest tenth of a pound). So you cannot just gain all the weight back you lost in a short period of time and then try again. You can correct a partial gain, however. And the profits are going to be suppressed because the starting weight has this upper limit imposed.
• For the yo-yo wager, the maximum allowed weight loss rate is 0.5% week-to-week. That translates to the following maximum percentages for each time period offered (rounded to nearest tenth of a percentage point):
  • 6 months: 12.2%
  • 7 months: 14.1%
  • 8 months: 16.0%
  • 9 months: 17.8%
  • 10 months: 19.5%
  • 11 months: 21.3%
  • 12 months: 22.9%
  • 13 months: 24.6%
  • 14 months: 26.2%
  • 15 months: 27.8%
  • 16 months: 29.4%
  • 17 months: 30.9%
  • 18 months: 32.4%

The resulting pledged pounds are rounded up to the next whole pound.

This last rule will put a damper on the amount of profit that can be made in two ways. First, the maximum return on investment percentage available will be less than for a virgin HealthyWager, as ROI is dependent on number of pounds pledged. Second, the maximum profit available will be less, as this number is also dependent on pounds pledged.

Example

On January 1, 2020, a 5’-5” woman starts a 6-month, 50 lb, virgin HealthyWager at 225.2 lb. She weighs out on June 25, 2020, at 174.2 lb and collects her prize. She is interested in a sequel HealthyWager to lose even more weight, but wants to take a break from dieting over the summer.

From the moment her win is verified, up until September 25, 2020, her only choice for a HealthyWager is a conventional one: she can establish a starting weight of 174.2 or less and lose whatever she wants in whatever amount of time she wants. If she’s over 174.2, she begins from “behind the starting line,” and has to lose that excess weight to get up to the line, then lose her pledge, all in the amount of time allotted.

From September 25 to October 24, she has the choice of the following:

• A conventional wager, starting at 174.2 or less—or starting from a greater weight, with 174.2 posted and the excess to be lost for no monetary benefit
• A yo-yo wager, which can start at 103% of her June 25 weigh-out weight of 174.2. This value is 179.4 lb.
  • If it’s a 6-month pledge, she can drop up to 12.2% of the starting weight; if she is 179.4, she can pledge up to 22 pounds (rounded up from 21.9).
  • If it’s a 7-month pledge, she can drop up to 14.1%. This is 26 pounds (rounded up from 25.3).
  • For greater periods, the appropriate maximum pledges apply.

From October 25 to November 24, the yo-yo wager starting weight can be 104% of 174.2, or 181.2.

From November 25 to December 24, the yo-yo wager starting weight can be 182.9.

And so on…

After a year—June 25, 2021—a yo-yo wager can start at 112% of the weigh-out weight, or 195.1.

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Anyway, that’s what I think about this. Maybe the percentages can be tweaked. But I like the 0.5%-a-week limit because that’s about what is allowed with jackpot challenges, which are yo-yo rule independent. 0.5% is a safe weekly weight loss rate.

The 1% a month increment after 3 months might be too tight. Maybe 1.25% or 1.5% is better—I don’t think I’d allow greater than 1.5%, though. Depends on how many yo-yo players you want and how much you want to pay them.

But at least it’s more transparent than what they are doing now.