Yo-Yo Idea #2: The Daily Weight Gain Allowance Rule

Here’s another way to do yo-yo bets permanently.

The first way is in this post, in which I allow yo-yo HealghyWagers, but impose both a maximum starting weight (last HealthyWager weigh-out weight, plus 1% for every month since that weigh-out), a maximum rate of weight loss (0.5% week-to-week), and a 3-month lockout period. I also leave the jackpot challenges alone, which right now are not affected by the yo-yo rule.

For this suggested rule, I impose a maximum starting weight for ANY weight challenge after the first one is launched. I state that each weigh-in imposes a ceiling that is gradually raised over time, on a daily basis. The lowest of these ceilings at any time represents the maximum starting weight available. No other restrictions are imposed.

This assumes that Healthy Wage does not want to reward a “rapid” weight gain, but offers some “forgiveness” for failing to maintain perfectly.

So every time you do any Healthy Wage weight challenge, you will be doing at least two verified weigh videos: the weigh-in at the beginning of the challenge, and the weigh-out at the end.

Let’s say you do a weigh in for a weight challenge. That means ANY challenge—HealthyWager, jackpot, team jackpot, $10,000 team. You’ll get a weight recorded.

Now let’s say you weigh in for another challenge. It might be a second HealthyWager after you weigh out for the first one. Or it could be a jackpot challenge when you have a HealthyWager already on.

That second wager will have a maximum allowed starting weight.

This will be determined by one of two formulas. Formula A below is used when the most recent verified weight is the lowest in your Healthy Wage history. If this is not the case, you use Formula B, which you can scroll down-post to find.

Formula A: When most recent verified weight is the lowest one

WSmax = WV_L * (1 + i) ^ d_L

Where:

WSmax = Maximum allowed starting weight for the second challenge
WV_L = Most recent verified weight (must be the lowest of all verified weights)
i = Allowed increase from day to day
d_L = Number of days elapsed since the WV_L weight was recorded

In English, you are allowed to gain no more than a certain (very small) percentage of your weight per day for a new challenge. If you do, and you want to begin a new challenge, you must set your starting weight to the maximum allowed weight and you must lose the difference before you can start working off your pledged pounds.

What should the value of i be? I guess it’s a bit arbitrary. For this discussion, I set this value to 0.04206%, or 0.0004206. If you add 1 to this you get 1.0004206; and if you raise that to the 365th power, you get 1.1659.

That represents a 16.59% annual increase in weight that would be allowed by this rule. I figure that’s something that might happen naturally if a winner failed to maintain his weight loss. It’s a gradual weight gain. I’m guessing anything over 20% annually would be “rapid.”

Also, the 16.59% figure is familiar to Healthy Wage team challenge players. But the daily increment figure can be adjusted upward or downward, depending on how strict or lenient the company may wish to be—and the profitability of the various options.

Formula B: When latest verified weigh in is NOT the lowest

WSmax = min (WV_1* (1 + i) ^ d_1 + WV_2* (1 + i) ^ d_2 + … + WV_L* (1 + i) ^ d_L)

Where:

WSmax = Maximum allowed starting weight for the second challenge
WV_1, WV_2, … , WV_L = All the verified
i = Allowed increase from day to day
d_1, d_2, … , d_L = Number of days elapsed since each verified weight was recorded

So you apply the daily growth to all those verified weights, and you choose the minimum of those to be the maximum starting weight for ANY new weight challenge.

Formula A is actually a subset of Formula B. If WV_L, the last verified weight, is your lowest, then you don’t have to calculate daily growth on the earlier ones—the last one, grown over time, will be the lowest of the set.

Example 1: Second Healthy Wager

On January 13, 2020, a 6’-1” man begins a 6-month HealthyWager to lose 48 pounds. He starts at 268.8 pounds and needs to get to 220.8 pounds by July 13, 2020. On July 1, 2020, he weighs out at 218.0 pounds.

He then relaxes for the rest of the year. On New Year’s Day, he notices he has gained some weight and wants to re-lose some of it as part of a New Year’s Resolution.

Assuming Healthy Wage allows yo-yo wagers complaint with the Daily Weight Gain Allowance; and he weighs in on January 1, 2021; what is the maximum weight he can weigh in at for this second HealthyWager?

Answer: You can use Formula A for this, as the July 1 weight is the lowest recorded.

January 1 is 184 days after July 1, when he weighed out at 218.0. The 218 is multiplied by (1 + 0.0004206) ^ 184 or 1.0775. The result is 234.9. The man may therefore start the wager at any weight up to 234.9 pounds.

In other words, he is allowed to gain up to 7.75% or 16.9 pounds over the final 6 months of the year without being restricted in his second wager. Should he weigh more than 234.9, he can start “behind the line” and pledge to lose that extra weight, plus the weight he will be monetized for after he gets down to 234.9.

Application to Jackpot Challenges

Jackpot challenges are currently exempt from the yo-yo rule. That means somebody who does lots of these challenges can game them by spiking their weight for each weigh in.

There’s a “2% per week” rule that limits the amount of weight loss allowed when multiple challenges are going on at around the same time—but the jackpot challenges are exempt from this also. Even if they were not, the 2% rule still allows for some gameplay to go on.

The Daily Weight Gain Allowance rule will apply to jackpot challenge enrollment as well.

Example 2: High Roller Challenge

On December 28, 2019, a man weighs in at 207 for a HealthyWager.

After a week of New Years parties and college bowl games parties, his weight bloats to 215. He decides to enroll in the $250 High Roller jackpot challenge, which has an official start date of January 3, 2020. He intends to weigh in on January 6.

Under the existing rules, the 215 weight will be accepted as a valid weigh in weight. But under the Daily Weight Gain Allowance, what would be the maximum weight gain allowed? Assume the 207 weigh in on 12/28 is the lowest on record.

Answer: Because 1/6 is 10 days after 12/28:

WSmax = 207 * (1 + 0.0004206)^10

= 207 * 1.004214 = 207.9

He can add 0.9 pounds to his HealthyWager starting weight for this challenge. So he can’t really “game” it by waterloading before weighing in. This will make it fairer for all players in this challenge.

Example 3: New Wager after Jackpot and Team Challenges

Here’s the verified weight history for a female player:

1/1/20: 250.0 (start of 6 month wager to drop 40 lb, target weight 210.0 or less by 7/1/20
1/3/20: 250.0 (start of $10,000 team challenge, needs to drop 16.59% or 41.5 pounds to have a chance at the big money—that’s a weigh-out weight of 208.5 or less by 3/27/20
2/19/20: 221.4 (weigh-in for a jackpot challenge, needs to lose 6% or 13.3 to win—that’s a weigh-out of 208.1 or less by 5/13/20
3/20/20: 208.0 (weigh-out for $10,000 team challenge)
4/29/20: 202.3 (weigh-out for the 2/19/20 jackpot
6/17/20: 207.6 (weigh-out for the Healthy Wager)

She goes on a cruise and enjoys the summer. Assume she gains some weight and wants to do another HealthyWager on September 1, 2020. What is the maximum allowed starting weight if the Daily Weight Gain Allowance is in effect?

Answer: Because the lowest verified weight was from 4/29/20, which is not the most recent verified weight, we need to use Formula B and calculate what each verified weight inflates to over their respective elapsed times. Then we find the minimum of these inflated weights. That figure is the maximum allowed starting weight for the new HealthyWager.

Here are the inflated weights (all dates in 2020, i = 0.0004206):

1/1: 250.0 * (1+i)^244 = 277.0
1/3: 250.0 * (1+i)^242 = 276.8
2/19: 221.4 * (1+i)^195 = 240.3
3/20: 208.0 * (1+i)^165 = 222.9
4/29: 202.3 * (1+i)^125 = 213.0 ***
6/17: 207.6 * (1+i)^76 = 214.3

The 4/29/20 weight, inflated over 125 days, is less than the more recent 6/17/20 weight, inflated over 76 days. Therefore, the woman’s maximum starting weight will be 213.0 pounds.

Had she not done the jackpot challenge, and weighed out for it so low, her maximum starting weight would be 214.3.

Had she weighed out higher for that jackpot—say, 206.0, which would have been a winning weigh-out—that weigh-out’s inflated value would be 217.1. And so the 214.3 value deriving from the HealthyWager weigh-out would remain the maximum starting weight for the second HealthyWager to start on 9/1/20.

In summary, rapid weight loss and subsequent weight gain during a player’s extended Healthy Wage campaign is discouraged. A player losing a lot of weight quickly will be blocked from gaining it back quickly to monetize it again in short order; but after a sufficient time, they can try it again, with more latitude afforded as time goes on.

Compared to the first idea, I took out the 3-month lockout period, and I took out upper limits on HealthyWager pound amounts. A player can try to lose a lot of weight briskly. But if he succeeds, he will have to wait quite a while—months and years—before he gets a chance to do that type of bet again.

The integrity of the jackpot challenges is enhanced as well. This gives the jackpots an advantage over their counterparts in DietBet, where no yo-yo rule exists and you have some players yo-yo’ing on a frequent basis to do serial Kickstarters.