HWSim Update

Download HWSim on your smartphone here!

I have been cleaning up the app and adding new features to it. Here’s a link to it!

I now have 5 pages showing data, in addition to the “launch” page that takes you to everything:

HealthyWager Calculation

This is where you can enter the information to define a single wager, and get the following outputs:

• Gain
• Prize
• Return on investment
• If the bet is illegal for being less than 10% of weight lost
• If the bet is illegal for being less than $100
• If the bet is NOT RECOMMENDED due to it being for too much money (i.e. you are violating one of the hidden profit caps that the calculator imposes)
• If the bet is NOT RECOMMENDED because it requires you to lose more than 1.5% of your weight each week to make, which is faster than what they will give you credit for on a 12-week challenge
• If the bet is NOT RECOMMENDED because your ending BMI will be under 18 (I consider that to be unsafe)
• For a bet that is OK, or not NOT RECOMMENDED:
  • The sub-formula that determines the payout—either the “regular” formula or the more lucrative “triple-bonus” formula
  • Holding pledged pounds the same, how much more you can put down and not violate any profit caps—or, your maximum possible profit
  • A suggestion for adjusting pledged pounds to trigger the “triple-bonus” formula, along with the maximum possible profit associated with that change

Prize Breakdown Pie Chart

This will show the total prize broken into four components:

• Your bet, getting returned to you
• The portion of gain that is directly dependent on your bet:
  • For a regular formula payout, this is equal to your bet multiplied by the return on investment, which varies from 11.11% to 194.12% in accordance with a complex formula, which HWSim attempts to replicate
  • For a triple-bonus payout, this is equal to your bet multiplied by 194.12%
• The portion of gain that is associated with the bonus part of the “triple-bonus” payout:
  • For a regular formula payout, this is zero
  • For a triple-bonus payout, this is equal to $6 for every pound of weight loss pledged beyond the 10% minimum, if you are a woman; $3.20 for each such pound if you are a man
• The referral bonus associated with the wager, if applicable

Return vs Pledged Pounds

What this will show is what happens to your gain, prize, and ROI if you sweep pledged pounds up and down from what you originally selected in the HealthyWager Calculation page. (But you can adjust those selections on this page and all app pages will adjust accordingly.)

This information is shown in both graphical and table format.

You can adjust the “horizontal zoom,” which is actually the number of data points in both the graph and the table. This is centered approximately on the selected pledged pounds.

For instance, if you selected a 50-pound bet and the zoom is set to 20, you will see payouts for all pledges from 41 to 60 pounds in the graph and the table. If the zoom in increased to 30, you’ll see 36 to 65; if it is decreased to 10, you’ll see 46 to 55. A zoom of 0 shows only the 50 pound bet in the graph and table.

The graph shows your choice of gain, prize, and ROI. You will also get the following quality information:

• Number of pledged pounds that are just enough to get you into the “triple-bonus” payout formula, if applicable
• “Keep-out” areas: These bets are either not allowed or not recommended for the following reasons:
  • Under 10% of bodyweight pledged, which is not allowed
  • Under $100 bet, which is not allowed
  • The amount being wagered is too high, and one or more profit gain caps are being breached
  • Rate of weight loss exceeds 1.5% week-to-week
  • Ending BMI under 18

Here’s an example of the graph:

Here is the zoomed-in version of this graph:

A 5’5”, 225 lb female pledges to lose 50 pounds in 6 months, and bets $100 per month. She has a $40 prize boost from a friend referral. Healthy Wage offers a $1,329.72 gain and $1,929.72 prize for this. The $40 boost raises the gain to $1,369.72 and the prize to $1,969.72.

You can see how the gain changes as the pledges pounds is swept from the low end to the high end.

On the low end of pledges pounds, there is a keep out zone that extends from 10 lb (the lowest bet that HWSim can simulate) up through up through 37 lb. These pledges are either not allowed or not recommended. Here is the breakdown:

—Pledges of 22 lb or less are not allowed, as they are less than 10% of the 225 lb starting weight.

—While pledges of 23 through 38 pounds are permitted, they are not recommended if the woman is going to bet $600, or $100 per month for 6 months. It turns out that the raw return on investment is so strong that the resulting net gain exceeds what Healthy Wage will pay to a woman who pledges that many pounds. This, the actual ROI and gain are suppressed. If the woman decreases her monthly payment, some of these pledges will become recommended again.

For instance, a 30-lb pledge will pay out its maximum gain amount when $516 is wagered, or $86 per month for 6 months. This will be indicated in HWSim on this page, when the woman adjusts the selected wager down to 30 lb.

—Going back to the $100/month or $600 case: 39 pounds is the minimum recommended pledge. If more pounds are pledged, gain increases by $6 for each of these pounds.

—At 74 pounds and up, the wagers are no longer recommended. This is because if the bet is to last 6 months, the rate of weight loss per week will exceed 1.5%. This weight loss correlates to the 16.59% upper limit on weight loss that Healthy Wage will credit a term member for who is doing a $10,000 team challenge—any faster is considered by Healthy Wage to be unsafe. This, I am judging any HealthyWager that requires a weekly loss rate exceeding 1.5% to be unsafe.

The woman can certainly drop 74 pounds, as her new BMI will be about 25. But she should take more than 6 months to do that. 9 months, for example, will require a 1.0% per week rate of weight loss, which is aggressive but safe.

Here are some images of the data table.

Return vs Wagered Dollars

What this will show is what happens to your gain, prize, and ROI if you sweep wagered dollars (per month) up and down from what you originally selected in the HealthyWager Calculation page. (But you can adjust those selections on this page and all app pages will adjust accordingly.)

This information is shown in both graphical and table format.

You can adjust the “horizontal zoom,” which is actually the number of data points in both the graph and the table. This is centered approximately on the selected monthly payment.

For instance, if you selected a $50 per month wager and the zoom is set to 20, you will see payouts for all wagers from $41 per month to $60 per month in the graph and the table. If the zoom in increased to 30, you’ll see $36 to $65; if it is decreased to 10, you’ll see $46 to $55. A zoom of 0 shows only the $50 per month wager in the graph and table.

The graph shows your choice of gain, prize, and ROI. You will also get the following quality information:

• The exact amount of money required per month to get the maximum profit for the wager you have selected.
• “Keep-out” areas: These bets are either not allowed or not recommended for the following reasons:
  • Under 10% of bodyweight pledged, which is not allowed
  • Under $100 bet, which is not allowed
  • The amount being wagered is too high, and one or more profit gain caps are being breached
  • Rate of weight loss exceeds 1.5% week-to-week
  • Ending BMI under 18

Here is an example graph.

This is the same 5’5” woman dropping 50 pounds, from 225 to 175, over 6 months.

The graph shows how the gain changes with the monthly bet. The $100 per month bet is shown with the blue line.

There are two “keep-out” areas on this graph:

• $16/month or less: The overall bet over 6 months is less than $100, so those cheap bets are not allowed.
• $129/month yields the highest gain. At $130/month or more, gain starts to decrease, as a hidden profit cap is breached. (If pledged pounds are increased, the maximum gain point will go up, because the profit cap goes up with more pledged pounds.)

Some images from the data table:

Sequential Bet Option

If you are losing a lot of weight over a 12 months or greater period, you can use this tool to determine whether you can make more money in a single bet over that long period, or if you may want to split the campaign into two smaller bets and do those sequentially.

Usually the single bet pays more. But if you are going to go for 12 months, there are advantages to doing two 6-month bets. For one thing, it is safer and you get some money in your hand faster. Another is the improved ability to market Healthy Wage to your friends and get more referral money.