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Executive Summary
Always bet in the “Mardi Gras” colors: yellow, purple, or green. Everything else is either illegal, financially irresponsible, or medically irresponsible.
TL;DR part begins here
So I created a color scheme to describe the HealthyWagers in HWSim, to illustrate if they were “good” or “bad.”
This post describes this color scheme, as well as a visual representation of how they would appear on a two-dimensional map, with one axis representing the number of pounds you are pledging, and the other axis representing how much money you are betting.
The third wager variable—duration of the wager—is chosen and fixed for the 2D map. You could add duration as a third dimension and create a 3D map if you wanted to. But time isn’t as strong of a variable as pounds (weight, not £) and dollars are. I will discuss time effects at the end of this post.
For this post I refer to the graph above, at the top or the post.. Let’s assume the duration of the HealthyWager is fixed—you are expecting to get paid on a certain date, because you are going to spend it on a vacation or a new refrigerator or something.
Horizontal axis is pledged weight–usually measured in pounds, increasing from left to right. But you can also measure it in kg or percentage of starting weight.
Other options for the horizontal axis are ending pounds, ending BMI, and ending BMI—these figures would decrease as you move from left to right.
You could also plot week-to-week average weight loss on that axis. The relative positions and shapes of the area boundaries may change a bit, however, compared to the other metrics, because week-to-week weigh loss isn’t quite proportionally related to the other ones, but they won’t change much.
Vertical axis is money bet—either monthly payments or total payment.
The amount of time of the bet is held steady. If time was increased or decreased, that would be another 2D map, with the boundaries shifted. In fact, you could plot in 3 dimensions, with time as the third dimension.
The white line boundary encloses all the places on the graph where you can set up a HealthyWager that is fully profitable (i.e. not betting too much money as to not get the full ROI benefit on every dollar wagered) and not medically extreme, as I have defined it)
—The left vertical edge marks the 10% weight pledge edge. If you are on the left side of this edge, you are not pledging enough weight and Healthy Wage will not quote you a payout.
—The bottom horizontal edge marks the $100 minimum stake (spread out over all 6 to 18 months—this is not the same as $100/month). If you are on the bottom side of this edge, you are not pledging enough money and Healthy Wage will not quote you a payout.
—The right vertical edge marks the weight pledge amount that results in either one of the two results, whichever is less (further left):
- Ending BMI falling under 18
- Week-to-week average weight of weight loss exceeding 1.5%
If you are on the right side of this edge, you are making a medically extreme pledge. Healthy Wage referees might reject it because they consider it unsafe. (I would say that most people would personally mark the boundary of extreme weight loss well to the left of this boundary, but the ultimate arbiter of this is the individual player.)
—The top curve of the white outline runs along the maximum profit contour. At each weight pledge point on the horizontal axis, there is a bet amount which, when multiplied by the resulting ROI at that pledge, results in a profit equal to the maximum profit Healthy Wage allows for that pledge, or as close to it as possible.
If you bet more than this amount, you will not get any additional profit for doing so when you win—and, for some pledge amounts, betting above the amount actually costs you some gain.
The contour extends along the tops of the green and yellow payout regions. It is highlighted with brighter versions of these colors, which correspond to the maximum bet amounts for each pledge amount.
At the junction of the green and yellow areas is a purple point, which is shown in brighter purple than the line segment below it. The purple line segment and point are technically members of the yellow area as far as calculator sub-formula association is concerned, but its significance in finding ideal wagers justifies the separate color for it.
The actual shape of the contour will vary for every player, depending on their gender, height, and starting weight. It is also dependent on the duration of the HealthyWager—more on this below.
The contour can be extended rightward of the right white line, and into the area for medically extreme wagers. For players who don’t have a lot of weight to lose—particularly if they have duration set to something low like 6 or 7 months—the purple/orange line will actually be to the right of the white line. That means that the triple-bonus formula payouts are practically unavailable for those players—they would have to lose weight too fast, or more weight than the amount they have in excess. The entire “good region” is made of “green” regular formula payout wagers, with a bright green contour at the top of it.
For extremely obese players, the purple/orange line may actually be leftward of the left white line, I.e. the minimum pledge to get a triple-bonus sub-formula payout is less than 10%. The entire “good” betting region is made up of “yellow” triple-bonus sub-formula payouts.
The purple/orange vertical line is the minimum pledge line for triple-bonus payouts. This represents the smallest pledge amount (in pounds) that triggers the better of the two sub-formulas for payout in the calculator. As you move from left to right on the graph, from the green area to the purple segment of this line, you will see your profit and ROI jump substantially.
The intersection of this line and the maximum profit contour is highlighted with a bright purple point. The purple segment of the line is below the point. To the left is the green contour segment, and to the right is the yellow contour segment. All bets on the point and on these contours are “good”, as are bets on the purple segment below. Above this point is the orange segment; bets on this segment are “bad” because they forfeit profit unnecessarily.
The “good” wager regions
(Green, yellow, purple—the “Mardi Gras” Carnival colors. Laissez les bon temps rouler.
Here are the “good” areas and contours in the graphic, bounded by the white line. They are:
💚Dark green area: Regular sub-formula payout, under maximum gain 💚
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain of somewhere between 11.1 and 194.12% of your bet. This is a good bet. It is possible to bet more money and get more gain at the same ROI percentage.
What to do if your selected wager is in this area:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—If you would like to make more money at this pledge, increase your bet ⬆️. For maximum gain, increase your bet until you get onto the bright green contour.
—Check your ROI. If it is 150% or above, consider increasing your weight pledge ➡️ until you move onto the purple/orange line (if you end up on the orange part of it, decrease your bet until you move onto the purple part of it). Your ROI will improve substantially in exchange for a slightly tougher bet. You can also increase time to make the pledge easier.
💚💚Bright green contour: Regular sub-formula payout, maximum gain💚💚
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain of somewhere between 11.1 and 194.12% of your bet.
This is a good bet. This is the most gain available for this weight pledge.
The shape of this contour will vary, depending on the biometric inputs and the duration of time.
It is a function of two factors, which themselves are functions of a number of subfactors, and therefore has a complex contour:
- ROI, which generally increases as you move from left to right
- Net gain ceiling, which generally increases as you move from left to right
If you are on the contour and increase ➡️ or decrease ⬅️ your pledged pounds, you will likely have to adjust your bet up ⬆️ or down ⬇️ to get back onto the contour in order to get maximum gain on your pledge.
Depending on the shape of the contour, the horizontal movement by itself can put you into the dark green area (in which case bet must be raised ⬆️ to get maximum gain), or in the red area (in which case bet must be lowered ⬇️ to get the same gain with smaller bet and avoid an overbetting situation).
What to do if your wager is on this contour:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—Check your ROI. If it is 150% or above, consider increasing your weight pledge ➡️ until you move onto the purple/orange line (if you end up on the orange part of it, decrease your bet until you move onto the purple part of it). Your ROI will improve substantially in exchange for a slightly tougher bet. You can also increase time to make the pledge easier.
💛💛Dark yellow area: Triple-bonus sub-formula payout, above minimum triggering pledge, under maximum gain💛💛
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain in excess of 200% of your bet. The gain will consist of a bet-dependent component (194.12% of your bet) and a pledge-dependent component (equal to the number of pounds pledged in excess of 10% of your bodyweight, times $3.20 (men) or $6.00 (women).
This is a good bet. It is possible to bet more money and get more of the bet-dependent gain.
What to do if your wager is in this area:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—If you would like to make more money at this pledge, you have three options:
A) Increase your bet ⬆️. For maximum gain, increase your bet until you get onto the bright yellow contour. Increasing your bet will increase the bet-dependent portion of gain, but not the pledge-dependent portion.
B) Increase your weight pledge ➡️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. By itself it is not much gain improvement in exchange for the extra pounds pledged. But…
C) Increase both your weight pledge ➡️ and your bet ⬆️. Not only will you get the boost in pledge-dependent gain, in most cases you can put more money at risk because the additional weight pledged will have increased your net gain ceiling—in graphical terms, the bright yellow line will be higher on the graph for the increased pledge.
Conversely, you may want to decrease your weight pledge ⬅️ to make the pledge easier to make, while sacrificing only a small amount of gain—the pledge-dependent portion of gain will decrease by only $3.20 per pound for men or $6.00 per pound for women.
You can make this tradeoff until your weight pledge gets onto the purple/orange line—any further reduction means you shift to the regular sub-formula area (green) and your gain drops precipitously, as the pledge-dependent gain component drops to zero.
As you decrease weight pledge, ensure that you stay in the yellow region or on the purple line segment, as appropriate, as your net gain ceiling will be dropping. If you breach the ceiling, you will end up in the crimson or orange regions—in those cases, reduce bet ⬇️ to get back into the yellow region or purple line segment.
💛💛💛Bright yellow contour: Triple-bonus sub-formula payout, above minimum triggering pledge, maximum gain💛💛💛
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain in excess of 200% of your bet. The gain will consist of a bet-dependent component (194.12% of your bet) and a pledge-dependent component (equal to the number of pounds pledged in excess of 10% of your bodyweight, times $3.20 (men) or $6.00 (women).
This is a good bet. It is the maximum gain achievable for this weight pledge.
The contour is generally an upward sloping line, in accordance with the pledge-dependent component of gain changing in a linear way. The exceptions are with players who have low starting BMI, in which case an additional net gain limitation is imposed—this will make the contour appear as a horizontal line (no slope) in places where it is in effect.
What to do if your wager is on this contour:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—If you would like to make more money at this pledge, you have two options:
A) Increase your weight pledge ➡️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. By itself it is not much gain improvement in exchange for the extra pounds pledged. But….
B) Increase both your weight pledge ➡️ and your bet ⬆️. Not only will you get the boost in pledge-dependent gain, in most cases you can put more money at risk because the additional weight pledged will have increased your net gain ceiling—in graphical terms, the bright yellow line will be higher on the graph for the increased pledge.
Conversely, you may want to decrease your weight pledge ⬅️ to make the pledge easier to make, while sacrificing only a small amount of gain—the pledge-dependent portion of gain will decrease by only $3.20 per pound for men or $6.00 per pound for women.
You can make this tradeoff until your weight pledge gets onto the purple/orange line—any further reduction means you shift to the regular sub-formula area (green) and your gain drops precipitously, as the pledge-dependent gain component drops to zero.
As you decrease weight pledge, ensure that you stay in the yellow region or on the purple line segment, as appropriate, as your net gain ceiling will be dropping. If you breach the ceiling, you will end up in the crimson or orange regions—in those cases, reduce bet ⬇️ to get back into the yellow region or purple line segment.
💜💜💜Dark purple line segment: Triple-bonus sub-formula payout, minimum pledge, under maximum gain💜💜💜
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain in excess of 200% of your bet. The gain will consist of a bet-dependent component (194.12% of your bet) and a pledge-dependent component (equal to the number of pounds pledged in excess of 10% of your bodyweight, times $3.20 (men) or $6.00 (women).
This is a good bet. It is possible to bet more money and get more of the bet-dependent gain.
What to do if your wager is on this line segment:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—If you would like to make more money at this pledge, you have three options:
A) Increase your bet ⬆️. For maximum gain, increase your bet until you get onto the bright purple point. Increasing your bet will increase the bet-dependent portion of gain, but not the pledge-dependent portion.
B) Increase your weight pledge ➡️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. By itself it is not much gain improvement in exchange for the extra pounds pledged. But….
C) Increase both your weight pledge ➡️ and your bet ⬆️. Not only will you get the boost in pledge-dependent gain, in most cases you can put more money at risk because the additional weight pledged will have increased your net gain ceiling—in graphical terms, the bright yellow line will be higher on the graph for the increased pledge.
If you decrease your weight pledge ⬇️ you will move into the green area and will revert to the regular payout sub-formula. It will result in a sharp drop in gain, because your pledge-dependent gain component will reduce to nothing. It is good to avoid this situation if possible; but if the purple line pledge is too hard to do, the payout in the green area will still be very impressive.
💜💜💜💜💜Bright purple point: Triple-bonus sub-formula payout, minimum pledge, maximum gain💜💜💜💜💜
Meaning: Your wager will earn a gain in excess of 200% of your bet. The gain will consist of a bet-dependent component (194.12% of your bet) and a pledge-dependent component (equal to the number of pounds pledged in excess of 10% of your bodyweight, times $3.20 (men) or $6.00 (women).
This point is at a 4-way junction involving the bright green contour, the bright yellow contour, the dark purple line segment, and the orange line segment.
Not only is this is a good bet, it is the maximum amount of gain you can achieve for this pledge. If you are comfortable with pledging to lose this much weight, it can be the best result of trading off pounds for gain: increasing pounds pledges will increase gain opportunity moderately, but decreasing pounds pledged will forfeit a lot of ROI as you move to the less generous sub-formula in the calculator.
There is only one wager on the entire map that is at this point. It may be the best money for your efforts on a HealthyWager.
What to do if your wager is on this point:
—If you are comfortable with this pledge and bet amount, sign on for this wager.
—If you would like to make more money at this pledge, you have two options:
A) Increase your weight pledge ➡️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. By itself it is not much gain improvement in exchange for the extra pounds pledged. But….
B) Increase both your weight pledge ➡️ and your bet ⬆️. Not only will you get the boost in pledge-dependent gain, in most cases you can put more money at risk because the additional weight pledged will have increased your net gain ceiling—in graphical terms, the bright yellow line will be higher on the graph for the increased pledge.
If you decrease your weight pledge ⬇️ you will move into the green area and will revert to the regular payout sub-formula. It will result in a sharp drop in gain, because your pledge-dependent gain component will reduce to nothing. It is good to avoid this situation if possible; but if the purple line pledge is too hard to do, the payout in the green area will still be very impressive.
“Bad” Bet Areas⚠️⛔️🚫
The “bad” areas of the graph are outside of the white boundary. They are:
⛔️Gray area: Illegal bet area⛔️
Meaning: You are wagering less than $100 over the course of the HealthyWager or pledging to lose less than 10% of your bodyweight. You will not be allowed to sign on in either situation.
What to do if your wager is in this area:
Increase your weight pledge ➡️ and/or increase your bet ⬇️ as appropriate. This will get you into one of the colored regions, which represent legal bets.
⚠️Red area: Betting too much on a regular sub-formula payout⚠️
Meaning: Your wager would be earning a gain of somewhere between 11.1 and 194.12% of your bet, but your bet is causing the gain to exceed a net gain limitation. Healthy Wage will be paying you the same gain it would pay if you were on the bright green contour directly below you.
Thus, you are putting extra money at risk for no financial benefit. This makes a wager in the red area a bad bet.
What to do if your wager is in this area:
—Lower your bet ⬇️ until you move onto the bright green contour, while keeping your pledged weight the same. Keep the excess money—or invest it in a jackpot challenge if you wish.
—Check your ROI. If it is 150% or above, consider increasing your weight pledge ⬆️ until you move onto the purple/orange line (if you end up on the orange part of it, decrease your bet until you move onto the purple part of it). Your ROI will improve substantially in exchange for a slightly tougher bet. You can also increase time to make the pledge easier.
⚠️Crimson area: Betting too much on a triple-bonus sub-formula payout (above minimum pledge)⚠️
Meaning: Your wager would be in excess of 200% of your bet—a combination of bet-dependent and pledge-dependent gain components—but your bet is causing the gain to exceed a net gain limitation.
Healthy Wage will be paying you LESS than the gain it would pay you if you were on the bright yellow contour directly below you.
It’s like the red area, but the effect is worse: Not only are you not getting any additional bet-dependent gain, you are forfeiting some of the pledge-dependent component of gain. The more you bet, the more of it you forfeit; and with further increases you eventually will lose the entirety of this pledge-dependent component.
What to do if your wager is in this area:
—Lower your bet ⬇️ until you move onto the bright yellow contour, while keeping your pledged weight the same. Keep the excess money—or invest it in a jackpot challenge if you wish.
—Increase your weight pledge ➡️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. Depending on your bet amount, this action may move you onto the bright yellow contour or into the dark yellow area, making the bet good again. Adjust your bet up ⬆️ or down ⬇️ as required to get on the bright yellow contour.
—Decrease your weight pledge ⬅️ if you want to get on the purple-orange line for minimum pledge required to trigger the triple-bonus formula, and adjust bet up ⬆️ or down ⬇️ as required to get on the bright purple point.
⚠️Orange line segment: Betting too much on a triple-bonus sub-formula payout (at minimum pledge)⚠️
Meaning: Your wager would be in excess of 200% of your bet—a combination of bet-dependent and pledge-dependent gain components—but your bet is causing the gain to exceed a net gain limitation.
Healthy Wage will be paying you LESS than the gain it would pay you if you were on the bright purple point directly below you.
Not only are you not getting any additional bet-dependent gain, you are forfeiting some of the pledge-dependent component of gain. The more you bet, the more of it you forfeit; and with further increases you eventually will lose the entirety of this pledge-dependent component.
This is the minimum pledge that triggers the triple-bonus sub-formula payout.
What to do if your wager is on this line segment:
—Lower your bet ⬇️ until you move onto the bright purple point, while keeping your pledged weight the same. Keep the excess money—or invest it in a jackpot challenge if you wish.
—Increase your weight pledge ⬆️. This action will add to the pledge-dependent portion of gain–$3.20 per pound for men; $6.00 per pound for women. Depending on your bet amount, this action may move you onto the bright yellow contour or into the dark yellow area, making the bet good again. It could also move you into the crimson area, which is also a bad bet area. Adjust your bet up ⬆️ or down ⬇️ as required to get on the bright yellow contour.
If you decrease your weight pledge ⬇️ you will move into the green area and will revert to the regular payout sub-formula. It will result in a sharp drop in gain, because your pledge-dependent gain component will reduce to nothing. It is good to avoid this situation if possible; but if the purple line pledge is too hard to do, the payout in the green area will still be very impressive.
🚫Pink area: Medically extreme weight pledge (not betting too much)🚫
Meaning: Your wager is financially “good,” however, the pledged weight and time combination are very extreme and you may run into problems with the Healthy Wage referees.
There are two conditions I test for in judging if a pledge is medically extreme:
- Week-to-week average weight loss above 1.5%
- Ending BMI under 18
What to do if your wager is in this area:
Lower your pledge ⬇️to get out of the pink area and into the “good bet” region of the graph. Keep an eye on bet size and adjust up ⬆️ or down ⬇️ as required to get onto a contour or at least out of an over-Bet area.
🚫Magenta area: Medically extreme weight pledge (and betting too much)🚫
Meaning: You are betting too much and losing gain. Also the pledged weight and time combination are very extreme and you may run into problems with the Healthy Wage referees.
There are two conditions I test for in judging if a pledge is medically extreme:
- Week-to-week average weight loss above 1.5%
- Ending BMI under 18
What to do: Lower your pledge () to get out of the pink area and into the “good bet” region of the graph. Keep an eye on bet size and adjust up () or down () as required to get onto a contour or at least out of an overbet area.
Effects of time on the HealthyWager
If you change the number of months for the Healthy Wager, the positions of the area boundaries and the maximum profit contour will change.
Generally, if time is increased:
—ROIs in the green area go up at each weight pledge value. This means that the purple/orange line may move leftward, and some of the “green” regular-formula pledges become “yellow” triple-bonus formula pledges. Adding time obviously makes a large pledge easier to make; but it also can improve ROI, and substantially so if your pledge was showing up just to the left of the purple/orange line before you added months to the wager.
—The medically-unsafe boundary may move rightward, as the week-to-week rate metric for each pledge goes down. It will not move indefinitely rightward, as there is an absolute maximum number of pounds a player can lose before their BMI drops below 18.
—When monthly payment is plotted on the Y axis, the maximum profit contour will obviously drop, since its position is dependent on total payment. But when total payment is plotted, you may see this contour shift very slightly.
Because Healthy Wage makes players define their wager amounts in rounded dollars per month, the maximum bet amounts at each pledge point may get rounded upward or downward. (In HWSim, some of the maximum contour bets are technically over-bets, but their profits are higher than they would be if $1 per month less was bet. The simulator allows you to forfeit some ROI on a fraction of that additional $1 per month, in exchange for getting full ROI on the remaining fraction.)
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