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This post goes into detail on the “green” formula for wager payouts.
This is what you get if you make a wager that Healthy Wage thinks is “moderate” for you.
Your payout is equal to you bet amount multiplied by a certain percentage between 11.1% and 194.12%. This is return on investment (ROI) percentage, and it is a function of the following factors:
- Body mass index (higher BMI means higher ROI)
- Gender (women get higher ROI than men)
- Time (more months makes the ROI go up slightly)
With these three factors held steady, ROI with the percentage of weight lost.
When ROI exceeds 60%, there appears to be a linear relationship with the logarithm of ROI and percentage of weight lost (or number of pounds lost). When you see ROI plotted on a linear scale, the rate of climb increases as the ROI becomes triple digits and approaches 194.12%. So each pound added to the wager does more financial work than the last one did. You can also put more money to work with each pound added, so your profit opportunity increases substantially with added pounds.
Below 60%, ROI tends to be suppressed below what the logarithmic-linear relationship would indicate. For very small pledges, the 11.1% minimum may serve as a “floor” for ROI.
On the other end, once the weight pledge is sufficient for the ROI from the “green” formula to reach 194.12%, the calculator switches to the “yellow” formula. The yellow formula pays profit of 194.12% of the player’s bet, plus a “bonus” that is proportional to the size of the weight pledge.
Here’s a graph of ROI available for a man who is 6’-1”, 268 lbs. This is generated on the Return vs Pledged Pounds page.
The easiest available “green” pledge is 27 lbs, just over 10% of bodyweight, with an ROI of 54.56%. It climbs as depicted in the graph as pounds are added. At 76 lbs, it reaches 189.77%.
At 77 lbs, the calculator switches to the “yellow” formula. The gain is equal to 194.12% of the bet, plus another $160.64 of “bonus” money. Further pounds added will add $3.20 per pound to the gain.
The graph above shows the maximum profit available at each quantity of weight loss pledged. In the “green” range, the maximum profit is $16 per pound pledged. (Women get $30 per pound in the green range.)
The graphs above show the maximum amount of money to bet to earn the maximum profit. The contour of this graph is a result of the ROI combining with the maximum profit.
In this graph from the Return vs Wagered Dollars page, we see profits for a 50-pound, 10-month pledge at different bet levels. At $81/month or $810, the 98% gain yields a profit of $793.84. The bright green bar indicates the maximum profit bet.
At $82/month or $820, profit goes up to $800. This is a “Red” wager—although the profit is slightly higher than $793.84, it cost another $10 to earn that extra $6.16. Technically this bet is OK. It’s a result of having to wager per month in even dollars. HWSim has judged $81/month to be the better bet, but $82/month will be good as well.
Going up to $83/month or $830, however, pays the same $800 profit. It Is a true sucker bet and should be avoided for a 50-pound, 10-month wager.
Weight Betting Odds 