Covid Pause – Minus 31 Days and Counting (Part II) (82,141)

http://www.healthdata.org/covid

The above is the link to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Covid study page.

They update their model periodically. The first set of data had past mortality up till 3/24, and predicted mortality for 3/25 and beyond—for every state and DC. They further subdivided Washington State into that nursing home where the first deaths occurred, the two counties in the vicinity, and the rest of the state.

On 3/29, they refined their model, using new data points. On 3/30, they did it again.

I am no longer going to try to predict the final result. I don’t know how to model this stuff, really. But I am going to track the maturation of the models, and see how their predicted average matches up with reality as time goes on.

So the 121,000 that I was predicting all along was probably off because the death data I am entering into the spreadsheet is different from that in their models—their 24-hour time period is different. My daily values were therefore higher than what they were recording. Rather than try to reconcile that, I gave up and now I am just going to record what happens.