Posted by There’s a lot of pressure to impose a nationwide shelter in place, complete with domestic travel ban.
I have a feeling that relatively wealthy and elite people who travel a lot, including internationally, think that many other people have the resources to do this easily, so they’ll flee hotspots unless the powers that be stop them. So they are the ones who are pushing for federal travel bans.
I believe if you are wealthy and living in a hot zone, even if it’s New York City, you are still safer to SiP then to go through the ordeal of packing up your things and moving to another location. You are inevitably going to encounter more people during your journey than if you just stayed put.
Because you cannot take lots of resources with you, you’ll need to draw from the resources in the location you are interloping in, at a time when resources are precious everywhere. And because you are probably not as familiar with the new location, you’ll navigate it less efficiently and expose yourself more.
Having a medical emergency during this time is bad luck, but you are more likely to have a medical emergency if you move than if you stay put. It’s risky to travel. Too many things can go wrong.
I think most anyone making such a move is either panicking or not taking the pandemic seriously. They probably think they can get away with being less careful if they move out of a hot zone. Maybe some of the people pushing for a travel ban are looking to travel first, then have the government slam the door behind them, so to speak. 🤨
But I do believe that most people at this point are actually taking things seriously, and are trying their best to shelter in place, and be extra careful when they venture out to do essential things.
The IHME model seems to assume otherwise—all states have a sharp mortality peak, just like NY and NJ. I’d like to see America prove the model wrong.
I will start my “model migration tracker” in earnest this week. Drs Fauci and Birx have stayed that the IHME model assumes state mortality in the other 48 states will be the same as it is in NY and NJ—a big ol’ spike for each, just at different times.
I think a lot of them are going to be pretty flat, since these states generally began mitigation early—like all these epidemiology LARPers say they should have.
Instead of praising them, the LARPers now want to barricade them because they think they will otherwise be inundated by Covid refugees and become hotspots themselves. Tomas Pueyo seems to be a big fan of centralized government—he has heavily criticized Trump’s general approach of providing guidance while having the governors and mayors take responsibility for their own jurisdictions.
A lot of them think we are all stupid and need to be told what to do by the government. But there are countless examples of American individuals and institutions stepping up to the challenge we are facing. It gives me hope and joy to see these folks featured on the news and in the White House press conferences.
I hope everybody in every state does shelter in place this months as well as they can. It’s really the only way out of the hole we are in. We are in the hole for a complex set of reasons, and we need to study the root causes very carefully and change things so that we don’t have to do this again, but those matter need to be set aside until we emerge from the hole.
And it isn’t “government” that is going to deliver us from the hole. It’s you and me and our neighbors, united and working together.
From Apollo 13:
- NASA Director : This could be the worst disaster NASA’s ever experienced.
- Gene Kranz : With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.
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