Posted by Some mortality log graphs today. Dr Birx wants to see us start bending those flatter (I.e. reduce growth rate of daily death).
It’s a mixed bag on these right now. It’s been 3 weeks since we started shutting down sportsball leagues and cancelling school, and that’s about when these folks who are dying caught the bug. So any mitigation that started then needs to start showing up in the numbers.
I have these broken up by federal circuit court district (arbitrary).
District 1 (most of New England)
The only state with large absolute numbers is Massachusetts (192). I look for “rightward” bends in the track. It may be bending rightward, but we need more days to see for sure. The other states (RI, NH, ME) have just a handful and we have to check for emerging hotspots (I haven’t but I’m sure Dr Birx is looking).
District 2 (CT, NY, VT)
Two of the three states in the biggest hotspot are here (NY and CT) They aren’t bending yet, although they may do so soon. Vermont is looking OK.
District 3 (Mid-Eastern Seaboard)
The other member of the tri-state hotspot, New Jersey, has yet to bend. PA looks a little better. DE might be OK.
District 4 (South-Eastern Seaboard)
Most of these don’t have a lot of mortality yet, but Maryland has been ramping up in recent days. (Sorry about the colors being so similar on this one)
District 5 (West Gulf Coast)
Louisiana is in this group. It is definitely bending rightward. The Mardi Gras parades ended and the massive density of the parades ceased, and I believe we are seeing the effect of this. Some ways to go, though!
(I lived near New Orleans for 8 years, in a town to the north called Slidell. They started a nightly curfew, because too many people were out and about.)
Mississippi is also bending rightward. Texas needs to be careful. I’m not sure which cities are the issue—I’ll need to check.
District 6 (Northern I-75 Corridor)
Michigan is bending, finally. They had only 62 gone today, down from 80 yesterday. Praying for a good Saturday.
District 7 (Northern US-41 Corridor)
No real bending yet but they aren’t as bad off as Michigan.
District 8 (Avenue of the Saints)
Comparatively good shape on all of these. Missouri looks good. Interestingly, a lot of these are the last states to implement mandatory shelter in place. Hopefully trends will continue for the next two weeks, which will show that SiP might not be necessary nationwide.
District 9 (West Coast, AK, HI)
Washington and California are growing moderately still. California will have to watch that its urban homeless don’t spread it amongst themselves.
District 10 (Mountains and Plains)
District 11 (Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida
Georgia is bending. Florida, which started off not so bad, is inflecting in the wrong direction. Spring breakers, I’d guess.
This weekend I’m going to take a break from the news and get more fresh air than I have all this week. I’m also experimenting with mask designs.
Weight Betting Odds 