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I took a break from tracking things. Lots of people are doing this now anyway.
Right now it seems we are at peak mortality and medical resource use in a lot of places, including my state.
Our governor, Gretchen “Half” Whitmer, has extended Shelter in Place until April 30. She wanted to go to mid-June, but the state legislature opposed her.
Along with the extension, however, are restrictions against traveling from one residence to the other. It seems there were a lot of Detroiters commenting “up north” to their cottages, which adds the risk of spreading the disease to areas that don’t have much of it already. So now you have to choose a residence and stay there. OK.
But now she has also classified more activities as “non-essential” that must be avoided. Home improvement stores have to cordon off their gardening, tile, and paint departments, among other things. You can’t hire a lawn service now. Yard waste collection is also being suspended.
I hope to see this walked back soon. If we are at peak resource utilization and mortality now, that means that the restrictions thus far are onerous enough.
In the coming days we will see the hospitalization and mortality rates decline.
At the same time, our assets for combating the pandemic are rapidly growing. We will have more ventilators, more masks, more gowns, more gloves. We will have better therapies to fight the disease, and more effective ways to prevent ourselves from being infected.
Most importantly, we will have a growing army of people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have significant resistance to reinfection.
The antibody tests are coming soon. Do we really have an R0 of 5-6 with no intervention, coupled with a very low fatality rate? If so, then controlled herd immunity may be the way out of this mess.
I am optimistic for the future. But I do not like the leadership style of my governor. I fear she has lost sight of what the purpose of stay-at-home is—to keep the health care system from failure due to overload—and is trying to stomp out the disease by shutting down every possible activity that she can.
When she addresses the state, she speaks to us as if we are all 5 years old. I contrast this approach to that of Andrew Cuomo in New York, whose daily addresses I generally like. There’s federal-state conflicts, but generally they get resolved. The Gretchenfuhrer spends way too much time blaming the federal government for the problems here.
Meanwhile, I’m in Ann Arbor today because it is nice out, and next week the weather isn’t going to be so nice.
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