Posted by At Healthy Wage, during the national quarantine, the HealthyWager calculator update was updated for both women and men.
Basically, it now pays out 20 percent less profit than it used to, for any given bet.
To go into detail:
—A “moderate” HealthyWager, which is one that is governed by a constant ROI (“green” region in my HWSim apps), now pays 20% less ROI than it used to.
For example: a 220 pound, 5’8” woman pledging 30 pounds lost in 6 months and betting $50 per month ($300 total) will now earn $264.21 profit, or 88% ROI. Before the quarantine, this profit was $330.26 or 110%.
—As pounds are added to a “green” wager, the defining ROI will rise. When it hits 155.29%, the calculator switches to a profit formula that pays 155.29% of the wager, plus $4.80 for every pound pledged in excess of 10% of starting weight.
This represents the new “yellow/purple” wagers in HWSim. Before the quarantine, the ROI threshold was 194.12% and the “bonus” money was $6.00 per excess pound. The new figures are 80% less than the old ones.
Referring to the example above, the woman can increase the pledge to 54 pounds to get a “purple” wager. At $50/month or $300, the profit is now $619.47 or 206.49%. This is 155.29% of the $300 bet ($465.87), plus $4.80 for each of the 32 pounds that is in excess of 10% of bodyweight: $4.80*(54-22) = $163.80.
Before quarantine, the 54 pound wager would still be “purple”, but it would have paid $774.33, which is about 110% ROI.
—The maximum profit levels have been reduced 20%. Most women making a “green” wager can earn $24 for each pound pledged; this used to be $30 per pound.
For the 220-pound, 5’8” woman, the maximum amount of money that should be wagered for a 30-pound, 6-month bet should be $136/month or $816. This will yield a profit of $718.64, which is still 88%. Before quarantine, this profit was $898.30 or 110%, with the same $136/month or $816 wagered.
At 54 pounds, a maximum wager of $139/month or $834 will yield $1,448.72 profit or 173.71% ROI. Before quarantine, this peak profit was $1,810.90 or 217.13%.
—Also, women starting from relatively low starting BMIs are subjected to a maximum profit availability that was dependent on this figure. This value used to be $800 for starting BMIs of 29.6 or less, and increased by $500 for every BMI point in excess of 29.6. The post-quarantine formula calls for a $640 limit at 29.6, plus $400 for each excess BMI point. Again, a 20% reduction.
I adjusted the HWSim apps to reflect all of these changes.
For men, the calculator is similarly changed from prior to quarantine:
- ROI formula is 20% less than before in the “green” zone, with ROI increasing with pounds pledged
- Transition to “purple/yellow” formulas occurs when ROI reaches 155.29% (was 194.12%)
- “Bonus” component of “purple/yellow” formula profit is $2.56 per excess pound (was $3.20 per excess pound)
- Maximum profit for “green” wagers is $12.80 per pound pledged (was $16 per pound pledged)
Some observations on advertising and what may need to change:
- Tara, who made $2,610 profit on a $3,000 bet to lose 87 pounds in 12 months (she bet WAY too much), would net $2,088 if she made that bet today. (The best bet to make for maximum profit is $1,344, which would earn $2,384.70 today, and $2,980.88 pre-quarantine.
- Bev Taylor, the ambassador and associate who is prominently featured in ads and runs a Facebook group, would earn $1,063.20 today for the feat of losing 50 pounds in 6 months and putting $600 on the line. Her profit back in 2018 was $1,329.
Weight Betting Odds 