Healthy Wage Calculator Example #1: Male / 270 / 6’1″ / 42″ Waist (Part 1)

Options and tradeoffs galore. This is my story.

This is the first of my examples on how to use the Healthy Wage calculator to set up a Healthy Wager.

This is my personal example–if I were to go back into time and do all of this over again, knowing what I know now.

What actually happened when I started was I bet $17/month to lose 48 pounds in 6 months. I started on January 13 and my weigh-out window was June 29-July 13. They offered me a $189 prize on my $102 bet. I later managed to get $180 in boost money, for a total prize of $369.

The only thing I got right was to actually complete the bet in time. I weighed out on the first possible day at 2 pounds under the required weight of 220, and I went on vacation the following day.

But I do remember spending a lot of time regretting not betting more money than I did. Part of me did not trust Healthy Wage at the time, but another part of me did not trust myself to actually complete the goal, and I did not want to miss the money if I failed.

As time went on, however, I remember wishing I had bet $150/month, $200/month, $250/month…and thinking about the big prize that would come if I did that! But the fact is those would have been sucker bets! A $143/month bet would have been returned to me with an additional $768 in new money (excluding promo boosts); but anything over that would have returned the same $768 in new money. All I would have accomplished by betting $150/month or $200/month or $250/month is to have Healthy Wage hold my money interest-free and keep it if I failed. That would have been a foolish thing to do–even more foolish that betting on the Big 6 and Big 8 in craps or betting the 5-number bet on an American Roulette table.

So here’s what I was supposed to do. And what any man of my size should do.

Setting weight loss goals

So my idea was to get to my “college weight”: 180-190 pounds or so. I had been losing over 2 pounds a week since October on average, so I wanted to figure what Healthy Wage would pay me to continue that progress over the following year. I had a family vacation coming up in July, so I figured it would be useful to complete a bet before that vacation and possibly start a new bet after that.

From 270 pounds (I was 268 when I actually weighed in), losing 2 pounds for 24 weeks would get me to about 222. If I kept up with that pace, I could weigh out on June 29, right before the family vacation. If I was a little short, I would have 2 weeks to catch up, including a few days after the vacation ended.

For this example we will first look at the 6-month, 48 pound bet options. We will then consider extending the pledge in terms of months and pounds, while maintaining the 2 pound per week weight loss rate.

6 month bet

The first query to make of the calculator is always a minimum-stakes bet, You have to spread at least $100 over the number of months of the bet. For a 6 month bet, the minimum stakes bet is $17/month or $102 all together.

The calculator reports a $192.95 prize, including $90.95 in new money; and the return on investment is 89.17 percent.

As the bet is using the regular payout formula, this same ROI is available for larger bets. ROI stays at 89% for larger monthly payments and the resulting net gain goes up accordingly. This pattern continues until you get to a point where the resulting net gain reaches $768, which for men is $16 pounds times the 48 pounds of the pledge.

On the graphs above, you see the net gain plotted against monthly payment and total investment. The constant ROI that applies for bet levels increasing from minimum value makes the plot look like a sloped line.

Once net gain reached $768, the ceiling imposed by the Healthy Wage calculator takes effect. This is shown by the sloped line ending and a flat line beginning and continuing with increased monthly payment.

The investment level at which the sloped line ends and the flat line begins is what you should bet if you want to make the most money on this particular wager. Ideally this value is equal to the net gain ceiling ($768) divided by the return on investment represented by the sloped line (89.17%). This value is $861.27,

Divide 6 months into $861.27 and you get $143.54. Because Healthy Wage requires you to bet in round dollars per month, the best bets you can make are on rounded up and down from $143.54. Rounding down gives you $143/month or $858; and gets you a profit of $765 and a prize of $1623, and the ROI of 89.17%. Rounding up gives you $144/month or $864; the profit this time is the $768 ceiling value and the prize $1632. The ROI is 88.89%: it is slightly smaller than from the one for the $143/month bet. Although in the ideal world this is a sucker bet, in the practical application of the calculator with its round-numbered monthly payments it is actually a feasible bet point.

If $145/month or more is bet, the $768 ceiling is in effect and the ROI is reduced. There is no point in betting $145/month or more, because Healthy Wage won’t give you any more new money for doing so. $145/month is the true beginning of the sucker bet range for practical purposes.

Some examples of good 6 month bets:

• $25/month, $150 total: Gain $133.75, Prize $283.75
• $50/month, $300 total: Gain $267.50, Prize $567.50
• $75/month, $450 total: Gain $401.25, Prize $851.25
• $100/month, $600 total: Gain $535.00, Prize $1,135.00
• $125/month, $750 total: Gain $668.75, Prize $1,418.75
• $145/month, $870 total: Gain $768.00, Prize $1,638.00 (maximum net gain—don’t bet any more than this)
• ***$150/month, $900 total: Gain $768.00, Prize $1,668.00 (SUCKER BET. THE EXTRA $5/MONTH IS DOING NO WORK FOR YOU)***
• ***$200/month, $1,200 total: Gain $768.00, Prize $1,978.00 (MUCH WORSE. NOW YOU ARE GIVING HEALTHY WAGE $55/MONTH IN FREE MONEY TO HOLD ONTO. NO NO NO)***
• ***$300/month, $1,800 total: Gain $768.00, Prize $2,578.00 (I include this one because early in my first HealthyWager I actually spent time regretting not doing this. It illustrates why this blog is necessary. 😮🤢🤮💩)***

7 month bet

89 percent is a nice return–it is almost a doubling of your money. But what happens to the return on investment when the 2 pounds per week weight loss is extended to 7 months? Let’s find out.

A minimum stakes bet for 7 months is $15/month or $105. But let’s stick to $17/month or $112 because the ROI is likely to be the same for both of these bets.

An additional 8 pounds are added to the original 48-pound pledge–2 pounds times 4 weeks. So we will query a 7 month, 56-pound wager at $17/month.

The net gain is $131.16, the ROI 110.22%, and prize $243.16. For an additional month we go from a slightly less than double return to a slightly greater than double return.

Because of the additional 8 pounds, the net gain ceiling has risen by $128 to $896.

For the lowest bet amount that yields $896 gain–and the most money you should bet for 7 months–divide $896 by the ROI of 110.22%. That value is $812.92. The equivalent monthly payment is $116.13.

For $116/month or $812, the net gain is about $895, and the prize is $1,707. It’s a better return for less money invested per month–and less money invested overall.

Some examples of good 7 month bets:

• $25/month, $175 total: Gain $192.89, Prize $367.89
• $50/month, $350 total: Gain $385.78, Prize $705.78
• $75/month, $525 total: Gain $578.66, Prize $1,103.66
• $100/month, $700 total: Gain $771.55, Prize $1,471.55
• $116/month, $812 total: Gain $895.00, Prize $1,707.00 (closest to highest net gain)
• $117/month, $819 total: Gain $896.00, Prize $1,715.00 (for another $8 invested we go up $1 in gain. That last dollar had only 12.5% marginal ROI. This bet is sort of a sucker bet.)
• ***$120/month, $840 total: Gain $896.00, Prize $1,736.00 (SUCKER BET WITH A DOUBT. STAY AWAY.)***
• ***$150/month, $900 total: Gain $896.00, Prize $1,796.00 (🚫📛⛔️🛑❌)***

To be continued

In Part 2 I will cover the 8, 9, and 10 month cases, in which 2 pounds per week is approximately maintained. In the 8 and 9 month cases, ROI is improved even more. But at 10 months, we get shifted to the supersize / summit model, in which the better than tripling of returns is realized.